Sat, Sep 6 2025
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Mackay Stadium
Reno, NV
·
Turf
·
26,000 cap
Sacramento State✈ 110 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Nevada wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Nevada -8.0
O/U 56.0
Bovada
Sacramento State 2025 Schedule
Sacramento State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/6 | Sacramento State at Nevada | +8.0L17–20 | 56.0 | L17–20 | U | Y |
Nevada 2025 Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Nevada at Penn State | +45.5L11–46 | 58.5 | L11–46 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Nevada vs Sacramento State | -8.0W20–17 | 56.0 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Nevada vs Middle Tennessee | -9.0L13–14 | 50.0 | L13–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Nevada at Western Kentucky | +8.5L16–31 | 54.5 | L16–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Nevada at Fresno State | +12.5L17–20 | 45.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Nevada vs San Diego State | +6.5L10–44 | 42.5 | L10–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Nevada at New Mexico | +14.0L22–24 | 49.5 | L22–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | Nevada vs Boise State | +20.5L3–24 | 51.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Nevada at Utah State | +10.0L14–51 | 52.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Nevada vs San José State | +10.0W55–10 | 49.5 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Nevada at Wyoming | +6.0W13–7 | 39.5 | W13–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Nevada vs UNLV | +7.5L17–42 | 53.0 | L17–42 | O | N |
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Sacramento State Edge
Sacramento State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Nevada Edge
Nevada +3.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Sacramento State
Brennan Marion #1
0–0 (0%)
OC
Kenneth Merchant
Yr 1
#1
DC
Marcus Patton
Yr 1
#1
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
3–10 (23%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
David Gilbertson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Ioane
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓