Fri, Oct 24 2025
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Mackay Stadium
Reno, NV
·
Turf
·
26,000 cap
Boise State✈ 336 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Boise State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Boise State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Boise State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Boise State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Boise State -20.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Boise State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Boise State 2025 Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Boise State at South Florida | -8.5L7–34 | 63.5 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Boise State vs Eastern Washington | -33.5W51–14 | 60.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Boise State at Air Force | -10.5W49–37 | 51.5 | W49–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Boise State vs App State | -16.5W47–14 | 59.5 | W47–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Boise State at Notre Dame | +21.5L7–28 | 63.5 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Boise State vs New Mexico | -14.5W41–25 | 58.5 | W41–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Boise State vs UNLV | -12.5W56–31 | 60.5 | W56–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | Boise State at Nevada | -20.5W24–3 | 51.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -17.5L7–30 | 47.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Boise State at San Diego State | +1.5L7–17 | 41.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Boise State vs Colorado State | -17.5W49–21 | 46.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Boise State at Utah State | -1.5W25–24 | 54.5 | W25–24 | U | N |
| Fri 12/5 | Boise State vs UNLV | -6.0W38–21 | 60.0 | W38–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/13 | Boise State vs Washington | +9.5L10–38 | 55.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
Nevada 2025 Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Nevada at Penn State | +45.5L11–46 | 58.5 | L11–46 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Nevada vs Sacramento State | -8.0W20–17 | 56.0 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Nevada vs Middle Tennessee | -9.0L13–14 | 50.0 | L13–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Nevada at Western Kentucky | +8.5L16–31 | 54.5 | L16–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Nevada at Fresno State | +12.5L17–20 | 45.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Nevada vs San Diego State | +6.5L10–44 | 42.5 | L10–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Nevada at New Mexico | +14.0L22–24 | 49.5 | L22–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | Nevada vs Boise State | +20.5L3–24 | 51.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Nevada at Utah State | +10.0L14–51 | 52.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Nevada vs San José State | +10.0W55–10 | 49.5 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Nevada at Wyoming | +6.0W13–7 | 39.5 | W13–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Nevada vs UNLV | +7.5L17–42 | 53.0 | L17–42 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Boise State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Boise State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +42.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Boise State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boise State
Spencer Danielson #1
15–2 (88%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Nate Potter
Yr 1
#1
DC
Erik Chinander
Yr 2
#1
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
3–10 (23%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
David Gilbertson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Ioane
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓