Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Wyoming,
while Game Control favors Air Force.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Wyoming wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Air Force wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Air Force -4
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Wyoming
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wyoming 2025 Schedule
Wyoming's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Wyoming at Akron | -8.5W10–0 | 49.5 | W10–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Wyoming vs Northern Iowa | -14.0W31–7 | 47.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Wyoming vs Utah | +24.5L6–31 | 47.5 | L6–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Wyoming at Colorado | +12.5L20–37 | 45.5 | L20–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Wyoming vs UNLV | +4.5L17–31 | 50.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Wyoming vs San José State | +1.5W35–28 | 50.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Wyoming at Air Force | +4.0L21–24 | 56.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Wyoming vs Colorado State | -5.5W28–0 | 46.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Wyoming at San Diego State | +10.0L7–24 | 42.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Wyoming at Fresno State | +3.0L3–24 | 40.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Wyoming vs Nevada | -6.0L7–13 | 39.5 | L7–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Wyoming at Hawai'i | +8.5L7–27 | 45.0 | L7–27 | U | N |
Air Force 2025 Schedule
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Air Force vs Bucknell | -31.0W49–13 | 54.5 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Air Force at Utah State | -4.0L30–49 | 51.5 | L30–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Air Force vs Boise State | +10.5L37–49 | 51.5 | L37–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Air Force vs Hawai'i | -7.0L35–44 | 52.5 | L35–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Air Force at Navy | +13.5L31–34 | 50.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Air Force at UNLV | +7.0L48–51 | 65.5 | L48–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Air Force vs Wyoming | -4.0W24–21 | 56.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Air Force vs Army | +1.5L17–20 | 48.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Air Force at San José State | +6.0W26–16 | 67.5 | W26–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Air Force at UConn | +7.5L16–26 | 64.5 | L16–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Air Force vs New Mexico | +3.5L3–20 | 53.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Air Force at Colorado State | -2.5W42–21 | 47.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wyoming
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +2.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Air Force
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Air Force
38.5 — 24.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Air Force won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Aaron Bohl
Yr 2
#1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
135–89 (60%)
· Yr 19 at school
OC
Mike Thiessen
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brian Knorr
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓