Boise State at Air Force Week 4 College Football Matchup Boise State at Air Force Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 20 2025 · Week 4 · 🏟 Falcon Stadium Colorado Springs, CO · Turf · 46,692 cap
Boise State✈ 668 miSame TZ
49 37
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Boise State
30
AFA +10.5
Air Force
25
P&R Line Boise State -4.5
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Boise State -10.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Boise State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Boise State -10.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boise State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Boise State Coming off BYE
Boise State 2025 Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Boise State at South Florida-8.5L7–3463.5L7–34UN
Fri 9/5Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.5W51–1460.5W51–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Boise State at Air Force-10.5W49–3751.5W49–37OY
Sat 9/27Boise State vs App State-16.5W47–1459.5W47–14OY
Sat 10/4Boise State at Notre Dame+21.5L7–2863.5L7–28UY
Sat 10/11Boise State vs New Mexico-14.5W41–2558.5W41–25OY
Sat 10/18Boise State vs UNLV-12.5W56–3160.5W56–31OY
Fri 10/24Boise State at Nevada-20.5W24–351.5W24–3UY
Sat 11/1Boise State vs Fresno State-17.5L7–3047.5L7–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Boise State at San Diego State+1.5L7–1741.5L7–17UN
Sat 11/22Boise State vs Colorado State-17.5W49–2146.5W49–21OY
Fri 11/28Boise State at Utah State-1.5W25–2454.5W25–24UN
Fri 12/5Boise State vs UNLV-6.0W38–2160.0W38–21UY
Sat 12/13Boise State vs Washington+9.5L10–3855.5L10–38UN
Air Force 2025 Schedule
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Air Force vs Bucknell-31.0W49–1354.5W49–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/13Air Force at Utah State-4.0L30–4951.5L30–49ON
Sat 9/20Air Force vs Boise State+10.5L37–4951.5L37–49ON
Sat 9/27Air Force vs Hawai'i-7.0L35–4452.5L35–44ON
Sat 10/4Air Force at Navy+13.5L31–3450.5L31–34OY
Sat 10/11Air Force at UNLV+7.0L48–5165.5L48–51OY
Sat 10/18Air Force vs Wyoming-4.0W24–2156.5W24–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Air Force vs Army+1.5L17–2048.5L17–20UN
Sat 11/8Air Force at San José State+6.0W26–1667.5W26–16UY
Sat 11/15Air Force at UConn+7.5L16–2664.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/22Air Force vs New Mexico+3.5L3–2053.5L3–20UN
Fri 11/28Air Force at Colorado State-2.5W42–2147.5W42–21OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Boise State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Boise State #44
+0.613
Air Force #19
+0.409
Boise State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Boise State #62
+0.776
Air Force #2
+0.629
Boise State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Boise State #50
0.166
Air Force #133
0.107
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Boise State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Boise State #73
+7.935
Air Force #12
+8.734
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Boise State #77
+0.916
Air Force #18
+0.837
Boise State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Boise State #33
69.4
Air Force #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boise State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Boise State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Boise State
3.3
Air Force
-5.2
Offense Rating
Boise State
18.1
Air Force
12.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Boise State
14.8
Air Force
17.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Boise State #100
0.00
Air Force #115
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Boise State #32
3.00
Air Force #57
1.00
Boise State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boise State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Boise State #1
57.4
Air Force #1
52.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Boise State #52
30.0
Air Force #101
43.7
Boise State +4.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Boise State
Spencer Danielson #1
15–2 (88%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Nate Potter Yr 1 #1
DC Erik Chinander Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
135–89 (60%) · Yr 19 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself