Thu, Aug 28 2025
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
·
Turf
·
65,857 cap
Boise State✈ 2,153 mi+2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Boise State -8.5
O/U 63.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → South Florida
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boise State 2025 Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Boise State at South Florida | -8.5L7–34 | 63.5 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Boise State vs Eastern Washington | -33.5W51–14 | 60.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Boise State at Air Force | -10.5W49–37 | 51.5 | W49–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Boise State vs App State | -16.5W47–14 | 59.5 | W47–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Boise State at Notre Dame | +21.5L7–28 | 63.5 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Boise State vs New Mexico | -14.5W41–25 | 58.5 | W41–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Boise State vs UNLV | -12.5W56–31 | 60.5 | W56–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | Boise State at Nevada | -20.5W24–3 | 51.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -17.5L7–30 | 47.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Boise State at San Diego State | +1.5L7–17 | 41.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Boise State vs Colorado State | -17.5W49–21 | 46.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Boise State at Utah State | -1.5W25–24 | 54.5 | W25–24 | U | N |
| Fri 12/5 | Boise State vs UNLV | -6.0W38–21 | 60.0 | W38–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/13 | Boise State vs Washington | +9.5L10–38 | 55.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
South Florida 2025 Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | South Florida vs Boise State | +8.5W34–7 | 63.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | South Florida at Florida | +18.5W18–16 | 58.0 | W18–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | South Florida at Miami | +17.5L12–49 | 56.5 | L12–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | South Florida vs South Carolina State | -36.0W63–14 | 56.5 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/3 | South Florida vs Charlotte | -28.5W54–26 | 54.5 | W54–26 | O | N |
| Fri 10/10 | South Florida at North Texas | +2.5W63–36 | 68.5 | W63–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | South Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -20.5W48–13 | 72.5 | W48–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | South Florida at Memphis | -3.5L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | South Florida vs UTSA | -14.0W55–23 | 66.5 | W55–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | South Florida at Navy | -8.5L38–41 | 62.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | South Florida at UAB | -21.5W48–18 | 68.5 | W48–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | South Florida vs Rice | -28.5W52–3 | 57.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/17 | South Florida vs Old Dominion | -4.0L10–24 | 52.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Florida
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Florida
57.8 — 17.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
South Florida won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Florida, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boise State
Spencer Danielson #1
15–2 (88%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Nate Potter
Yr 1
#1
DC
Erik Chinander
Yr 2
#1
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
13–12 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joel Gordon
Yr 3
#1
DC
Todd Orlando
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓