Thu, Dec 18 2025
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Ford Center At The Star
Frisco, TX
·
Turf
·
120,000 cap
Missouri State✈ 343 miSame TZ
Arkansas State✈ 397 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Missouri State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Missouri State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Missouri State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Missouri State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arkansas State -1.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Missouri State 2025 Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Missouri State at USC | +34.5L13–73 | 59.5 | L13–73 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Missouri State at Marshall | +7.0W21–20 | 53.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Missouri State vs SMU | +29.5L10–28 | 60.5 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Missouri State vs UT Martin | -14.0W42–10 | 55.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Missouri State vs Western Kentucky | +3.5L22–27 | 59.5 | L22–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/8 | Missouri State at Middle Tennessee | -2.5W22–20 | 52.5 | W22–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/22 | Missouri State at New Mexico State | -2.5W24–17 | 51.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/29 | Missouri State vs Florida International | -3.0W28–21 | 50.0 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Missouri State at Liberty | +7.5W21–17 | 51.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Missouri State vs UTEP | -6.5W38–24 | 47.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Missouri State at Kennesaw State | +6.5L34–41 | 54.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech | -2.5L30–42 | 45.0 | L30–42 | O | N |
| Thu 12/18 | Missouri State vs Arkansas State | +1.5L28–34 | 55.5 | L28–34 | O | N |
Arkansas State 2025 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State | -15.5W42–24 | 59.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas State vs Arkansas | +23.5L14–56 | 62.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas State vs Iowa State | +21.0L16–24 | 55.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas State at Kennesaw State | -4.5L21–28 | 57.5 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +1.5L16–28 | 55.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +14.0W31–30 | 63.5 | W31–30 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +8.5W15–14 | 57.5 | W15–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern | +1.5W34–24 | 59.5 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas State at Troy | +7.5W23–10 | 52.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +6.5L21–27 | 54.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/20 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | -2.5L30–34 | 54.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas State at App State | +1.0W30–29 | 54.5 | W30–29 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/18 | Arkansas State vs Missouri State | -1.5W34–28 | 55.5 | W34–28 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Missouri State Edge
Missouri State +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Missouri State Edge
Missouri State +8.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas State
93.6 — 4.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arkansas State won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Missouri State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Missouri State
Ryan Beard #1
12–11 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Nick Petrino
Yr 2
#1
DC
L.D. Scott
Yr 2
#1
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
18–31 (37%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓