Wed, Oct 29 2025
·
Week 10
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🏟 Plaster Sports Complex
Springfield, MO
·
Turf
·
17,500 cap
Florida International✈ 1,094 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida International,
while Game Control favors Missouri State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Missouri State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Missouri State -3.0
O/U 50.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida International
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2025 Schedule
Florida International's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Florida International vs Bethune-Cookman | -26.5W42–9 | 54.5 | W42–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Florida International at Penn State | +42.0L0–34 | 53.5 | L0–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Florida International vs Florida Atlantic | -2.0W38–28 | 56.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Florida International vs Delaware | -4.0L16–38 | 54.5 | L16–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Florida International at UConn | +7.0L10–51 | 52.5 | L10–51 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Florida International at Western Kentucky | +9.5W25–6 | 55.5 | W25–6 | U | Y |
| Tue 10/21 | Florida International vs Kennesaw State | +3.0L26–45 | 48.5 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Wed 10/29 | Florida International at Missouri State | +3.0L21–28 | 50.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | +1.5W56–30 | 50.5 | W56–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Florida International vs Liberty | +2.5W34–27 | 51.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Florida International vs Jacksonville State | -2.5W27–21 | 55.5 | W27–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Florida International vs Sam Houston | -10.5W56–16 | 50.5 | W56–16 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/26 | Florida International vs UTSA | +7.0L20–57 | 62.5 | L20–57 | O | N |
Missouri State 2025 Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Missouri State at USC | +34.5L13–73 | 59.5 | L13–73 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Missouri State at Marshall | +7.0W21–20 | 53.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Missouri State vs SMU | +29.5L10–28 | 60.5 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Missouri State vs UT Martin | -14.0W42–10 | 55.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Missouri State vs Western Kentucky | +3.5L22–27 | 59.5 | L22–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/8 | Missouri State at Middle Tennessee | -2.5W22–20 | 52.5 | W22–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/22 | Missouri State at New Mexico State | -2.5W24–17 | 51.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/29 | Missouri State vs Florida International | -3.0W28–21 | 50.0 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Missouri State at Liberty | +7.5W21–17 | 51.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Missouri State vs UTEP | -6.5W38–24 | 47.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Missouri State at Kennesaw State | +6.5L34–41 | 54.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech | -2.5L30–42 | 45.0 | L30–42 | O | N |
| Thu 12/18 | Missouri State vs Arkansas State | +1.5L28–34 | 55.5 | L28–34 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida International
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida International
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida International
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Missouri State Edge
Missouri State +2.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Willie Simmons #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Nick Coleman
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 3
#1
Missouri State
Ryan Beard #1
12–11 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Nick Petrino
Yr 2
#1
DC
L.D. Scott
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓