Missouri State at Marshall Week 2 College Football Matchup Missouri State at Marshall Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium Huntington, WV · Turf · 38,019 cap
Missouri State✈ 598 mi+1 hr TZ
21 20
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Missouri State
26
MOST +7
Marshall
30
P&R Line Marshall -3.5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Marshall -7.0 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Missouri State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Marshall -7.0
O/U 53.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Marshall · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Missouri State 2nd straight Road Game
Missouri State 2025 Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Missouri State at USC+34.5L13–7359.5L13–73ON
Sat 9/6Missouri State at Marshall+7.0W21–2053.5W21–20UY
Sat 9/13Missouri State vs SMU+29.5L10–2860.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/20Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.0W42–1055.5W42–10UY
Sat 9/27Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.5L22–2759.5L22–27UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.5W22–2052.5W22–20UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/22Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.5W24–1751.5W24–17UY
Wed 10/29Missouri State vs Florida International-3.0W28–2150.0W28–21UY
Sat 11/8Missouri State at Liberty+7.5W21–1751.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Missouri State vs UTEP-6.5W38–2447.5W38–24OY
Sat 11/22Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.5L34–4154.0L34–41ON
Sat 11/29Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.5L30–4245.0L30–42ON
Thu 12/18Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.5L28–3455.5L28–34ON
Marshall 2025 Schedule
Marshall's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Marshall at Georgia+39.5L7–4555.5L7–45UY
Sat 9/6Marshall vs Missouri State-7.0L20–2153.5L20–21UN
Sat 9/13Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky-14.5W38–749.5W38–7UY
Sat 9/20Marshall at Middle Tennessee-2.5W42–2846.5W42–28OY
Sat 9/27Marshall at Louisiana-2.5L51–5447.5L51–54ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Marshall vs Old Dominion+14.5W48–2457.5W48–24OY
Sat 10/18Marshall vs Texas State+3.0W40–3765.5W40–37OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/30Marshall at Coastal Carolina-7.5L27–4455.5L27–44ON
Sat 11/8Marshall vs James Madison+13.5L23–3553.5L23–35OY
Sat 11/15Marshall at Georgia State-9.5W30–1859.5W30–18UY
Sat 11/22Marshall at App State-3.5L24–2657.5L24–26UN
Sat 11/29Marshall vs Georgia Southern-10.5L19–2461.5L19–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Missouri State #69
+0.333
Marshall #56
+0.421
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Missouri State #41
+0.670
Marshall #28
+0.713
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Missouri State #83
0.150
Marshall #67
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Marshall Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Missouri State #68
+7.316
Marshall #52
+7.785
Marshall Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Missouri State #105
+0.782
Marshall #37
+0.878
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Missouri State #54
70.5
Marshall #12
67.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Marshall Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Marshall Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Missouri State
-8.9
Marshall
-3.0
Offense Rating
Missouri State
11.8
Marshall
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Missouri State
20.7
Marshall
16.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Missouri State #96
0.00
Marshall #93
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Missouri State #132
7.00
Marshall #90
3.00
Missouri State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Missouri State #1
5.2
Marshall #1
2.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Missouri State #89
84.5
Marshall #70
93.5
Missouri State +2.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Missouri State
Ryan Beard #1
12–11 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Nick Petrino Yr 2 #1
DC L.D. Scott Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Marshall
Tony Gibson #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 1 #1
DC Shannon Morrison Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself