SMU at Missouri State Week 3 College Football Matchup SMU at Missouri State Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 13 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Plaster Sports Complex Springfield, MO · Turf · 17,500 cap
SMU✈ 360 miSame TZ
Away
28 10
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
SMU
39
MOST +29.5
Missouri State
18
P&R Line SMU -21
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas SMU -29.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
SMU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor SMU entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
SMU wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
SMU wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
SMU -29.5
O/U 60.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → SMU · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
SMU 2025 Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.0W42–1365.0W42–13UN
Sat 9/6SMU vs Baylor-3.0L45–4865.5L45–48ON
Sat 9/13SMU at Missouri State-29.5W28–1060.5W28–10UN
Sat 9/20SMU at TCU+6.5L24–3563.5L24–35UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4SMU vs Syracuse-17.5W31–1856.5W31–18UN
Sat 10/11SMU vs Stanford-19.5W34–1055.5W34–10UY
Sat 10/18SMU at Clemson+3.5W35–2449.5W35–24OY
Sat 10/25SMU at Wake Forest-6.5L12–1353.5L12–13UN
Sat 11/1SMU vs Miami+8.5W26–2050.5W26–20UY
Sat 11/8SMU at Boston College-10.5W45–1354.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22SMU vs Louisville-4.0W38–649.5W38–6UY
Sat 11/29SMU at California-13.5L35–3853.5L35–38ON
Fri 1/2SMU vs Arizona-2.5W24–1955.5W24–19UY
Missouri State 2025 Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Missouri State at USC+34.5L13–7359.5L13–73ON
Sat 9/6Missouri State at Marshall+7.0W21–2053.5W21–20UY
Sat 9/13Missouri State vs SMU+29.5L10–2860.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/20Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.0W42–1055.5W42–10UY
Sat 9/27Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.5L22–2759.5L22–27UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.5W22–2052.5W22–20UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/22Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.5W24–1751.5W24–17UY
Wed 10/29Missouri State vs Florida International-3.0W28–2150.0W28–21UY
Sat 11/8Missouri State at Liberty+7.5W21–1751.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Missouri State vs UTEP-6.5W38–2447.5W38–24OY
Sat 11/22Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.5L34–4154.0L34–41ON
Sat 11/29Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.5L30–4245.0L30–42ON
Thu 12/18Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.5L28–3455.5L28–34ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
SMU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ SMU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
SMU #30
+0.463
Missouri State #69
+0.207
SMU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
SMU #23
+0.731
Missouri State #41
+0.521
SMU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
SMU #15
0.188
Missouri State #83
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
SMU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
SMU #53
+7.779
Missouri State #68
+6.481
SMU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
SMU #64
+0.853
Missouri State #105
+0.796
SMU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
SMU #109
72.4
Missouri State #54
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Missouri State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
SMU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
SMU
15.2
Missouri State
-8.9
Offense Rating
SMU
25.0
Missouri State
11.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
SMU
9.8
Missouri State
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? SMU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
SMU #22
1.00
Missouri State #96
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #2
0.00
Missouri State #132
3.50
SMU +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? SMU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
SMU #1
82.0
Missouri State #1
11.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #19
6.5
Missouri State #89
67.3
SMU +70.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on SMU with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
SMU
Rhett Lashlee #1
29–12 (71%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Casey Woods Yr 3 #1
DC Scott Symons Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Missouri State
Ryan Beard #1
12–11 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Nick Petrino Yr 2 #1
DC L.D. Scott Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself