Florida International at Middle Tennessee Week 11 College Football Matchup Florida International at Middle Tennessee Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 8 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" Murfreesboro, TN · Turf · 31,000 cap
Florida International✈ 782 mi-1 hr TZ
56 30
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida International
26
Middle Tennessee
27
P&R Line Middle Tennessee -0.5
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Middle Tennessee -1.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Florida International has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Florida International entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Florida International wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -1.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Florida International · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Middle Tennessee 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Florida International 2nd straight Road Game
Florida International 2025 Schedule
Middle Tennessee 2025 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 9/6Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.5L10–4245.5L10–42ON
Sat 9/13Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.0W14–1350.0W14–13UY
Sat 9/20Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.5L28–4246.5L28–42ON
Sat 9/27Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.0L16–2454.5L16–24UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.5L20–2252.5L20–22UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/22Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.5L28–3155.5L28–31OY
Wed 10/29Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.5L21–2454.0L21–24UY
Sat 11/8Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.5L30–5650.5L30–56ON
Sat 11/15Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.5L26–4251.5L26–42ON
Sat 11/22Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.5W31–1753.5W31–17UY
Sat 11/29Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.5W31–2452.0W31–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Florida International PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida International
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida International #81
+0.372
Middle Tennessee #78
+0.325
Florida International Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #89
+0.620
Middle Tennessee #88
+0.476
Florida International Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida International #54
0.164
Middle Tennessee #67
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida International Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #35
+8.148
Middle Tennessee #117
+6.855
Florida International Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida International #93
+0.853
Middle Tennessee #59
+0.856
Middle Tennessee Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida International #46
69.9
Middle Tennessee #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida International Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida International Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida International
-4.1
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
Offense Rating
Florida International
11.7
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida International
15.8
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida International Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida International #77
0.71
Middle Tennessee #98
0.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #107
1.43
Middle Tennessee #54
0.86
Florida International +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida International Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida International #1
34.7
Middle Tennessee #1
19.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #94
53.4
Middle Tennessee #120
61.0
Florida International +15.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida International
1 — 6 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida International
23.2 — 60.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Florida International won by 26
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Florida International with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Willie Simmons #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Nick Coleman Yr 1 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 2 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself