Wake Forest at Virginia Tech Week 6 College Football Matchup Wake Forest at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 4 2025 · Week 6 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
Wake Forest✈ 75 miSame TZ
30 23
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wake Forest
30
Virginia Tech
22
P&R Line Wake Forest -8.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -4.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -4.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Wake Forest · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2025 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.5W10–951.5W10–9UN
Sat 9/6Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.5W42–1060.5W42–10UY
Thu 9/11Wake Forest vs NC State+7.5L24–3452.5L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.5L29–3053.5L29–30OY
Sat 10/4Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.5W30–2351.5W30–23OY
Sat 10/11Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.5W39–1447.5W39–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Wake Forest vs SMU+6.5W13–1253.5W13–12UY
Sat 11/1Wake Forest at Florida State+12.5L7–4250.5L7–42UN
Sat 11/8Wake Forest at Virginia+7.0W16–948.5W16–9UY
Sat 11/15Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.5W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 11/22Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.5W52–1449.5W52–14OY
Sat 11/29Wake Forest at Duke+2.5L32–4954.0L32–49ON
Fri 1/2Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.0W43–2952.5W43–29OY
Virginia Tech 2025 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31Virginia Tech vs South Carolina+8.5L11–2448.5L11–24UN
Sat 9/6Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt-2.5L20–4446.5L20–44ON
Sat 9/13Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-5.5L26–4550.5L26–45ON
Sat 9/20Virginia Tech vs Wofford-35.5W38–651.5W38–6UN
Sat 9/27Virginia Tech at NC State+10.0W23–2157.5W23–21UY
Sat 10/4Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-4.5L23–3051.5L23–30ON
Sat 10/11Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+14.0L20–3555.5L20–35UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/24Virginia Tech vs California-6.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 11/1Virginia Tech vs Louisville+10.5L16–2852.5L16–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Virginia Tech at Florida State+13.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 11/22Virginia Tech vs Miami+18.5L17–3449.0L17–34OY
Sat 11/29Virginia Tech at Virginia+9.5L7–2753.5L7–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Wake Forest PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wake Forest
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Wake Forest #82
+0.431
Virginia Tech #70
+0.198
Wake Forest Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #69
+0.667
Virginia Tech #113
+0.256
Wake Forest Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #21
0.182
Virginia Tech #116
0.132
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wake Forest Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #113
+7.575
Virginia Tech #70
+6.916
Wake Forest Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Wake Forest #112
+0.840
Virginia Tech #84
+0.767
Wake Forest Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Wake Forest #30
69.3
Virginia Tech #124
73.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Wake Forest Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Wake Forest
4.6
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
Wake Forest
16.6
Virginia Tech
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Wake Forest
12.0
Virginia Tech
12.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wake Forest Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Wake Forest #42
1.67
Virginia Tech #106
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wake Forest #40
1.00
Virginia Tech #98
1.75
Wake Forest +1.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wake Forest Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wake Forest #1
67.6
Virginia Tech #1
41.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wake Forest #20
16.4
Virginia Tech #116
44.8
Wake Forest +26.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wake Forest
22.9 — 52.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wake Forest won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Wake Forest with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Jake Dickert #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rob Ezell Yr 1 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
16–20 (44%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Philip Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Sam Siefkes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself