Sat, Oct 4 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Lane Stadium
Blacksburg, VA
·
Turf
·
66,233 cap
Wake Forest✈ 75 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -4.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Wake Forest
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2025 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State | -17.5W10–9 | 51.5 | W10–9 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Wake Forest vs Western Carolina | -17.5W42–10 | 60.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/11 | Wake Forest vs NC State | +7.5L24–34 | 52.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech | +13.5L29–30 | 53.5 | L29–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Wake Forest at Virginia Tech | +4.5W30–23 | 51.5 | W30–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Wake Forest at Oregon State | -1.5W39–14 | 47.5 | W39–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Wake Forest vs SMU | +6.5W13–12 | 53.5 | W13–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Wake Forest at Florida State | +12.5L7–42 | 50.5 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Wake Forest at Virginia | +7.0W16–9 | 48.5 | W16–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Wake Forest vs North Carolina | -3.5W28–12 | 37.5 | W28–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Wake Forest vs Delaware | -17.5W52–14 | 49.5 | W52–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Wake Forest at Duke | +2.5L32–49 | 54.0 | L32–49 | O | N |
| Fri 1/2 | Wake Forest vs Mississippi State | +3.0W43–29 | 52.5 | W43–29 | O | Y |
Virginia Tech 2025 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 8/31 | Virginia Tech vs South Carolina | +8.5L11–24 | 48.5 | L11–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt | -2.5L20–44 | 46.5 | L20–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion | -5.5L26–45 | 50.5 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Virginia Tech vs Wofford | -35.5W38–6 | 51.5 | W38–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Virginia Tech at NC State | +10.0W23–21 | 57.5 | W23–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest | -4.5L23–30 | 51.5 | L23–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | +14.0L20–35 | 55.5 | L20–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/24 | Virginia Tech vs California | -6.5W42–34 | 50.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Virginia Tech vs Louisville | +10.5L16–28 | 52.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Virginia Tech at Florida State | +13.5L14–34 | 53.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Virginia Tech vs Miami | +18.5L17–34 | 49.0 | L17–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Virginia Tech at Virginia | +9.5L7–27 | 53.5 | L7–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wake Forest
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +1.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +26.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wake Forest
22.9 — 52.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wake Forest won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wake Forest with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Jake Dickert #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 1
#1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
16–20 (44%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Philip Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Sam Siefkes
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

