Sat, Sep 27 2025
·
Week 5
·
🏟 BB&T Field
Winston-Salem, NC
·
Turf
·
31,500 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 285 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia Tech,
while Game Control favors Wake Forest.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -13.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2025 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Georgia Tech at Colorado | -4.0W27–20 | 55.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Georgia Tech vs Gardner-Webb | -37.5W59–12 | 60.5 | W59–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Georgia Tech vs Clemson | +2.5W24–21 | 49.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Georgia Tech vs Temple | -24.5W45–24 | 52.5 | W45–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Georgia Tech at Wake Forest | -13.5W30–29 | 53.5 | W30–29 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech | -14.0W35–20 | 55.5 | W35–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Georgia Tech at Duke | +3.5W27–18 | 60.5 | W27–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Georgia Tech vs Syracuse | -17.5W41–16 | 52.5 | W41–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Georgia Tech at NC State | -4.5L36–48 | 58.5 | L36–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Georgia Tech at Boston College | -16.5W36–34 | 61.5 | W36–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh | -2.5L28–42 | 61.5 | L28–42 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Georgia Tech vs Georgia | +15.5L9–16 | 59.5 | L9–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | Georgia Tech vs BYU | +3.5L21–25 | 55.0 | L21–25 | U | N |
Wake Forest 2025 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State | -17.5W10–9 | 51.5 | W10–9 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Wake Forest vs Western Carolina | -17.5W42–10 | 60.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/11 | Wake Forest vs NC State | +7.5L24–34 | 52.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech | +13.5L29–30 | 53.5 | L29–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Wake Forest at Virginia Tech | +4.5W30–23 | 51.5 | W30–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Wake Forest at Oregon State | -1.5W39–14 | 47.5 | W39–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Wake Forest vs SMU | +6.5W13–12 | 53.5 | W13–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Wake Forest at Florida State | +12.5L7–42 | 50.5 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Wake Forest at Virginia | +7.0W16–9 | 48.5 | W16–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Wake Forest vs North Carolina | -3.5W28–12 | 37.5 | W28–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Wake Forest vs Delaware | -17.5W52–14 | 49.5 | W52–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Wake Forest at Duke | +2.5L32–49 | 54.0 | L32–49 | O | N |
| Fri 1/2 | Wake Forest vs Mississippi State | +3.0W43–29 | 52.5 | W43–29 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Tech Edge
Georgia Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +5.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Wake Forest
3 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wake Forest
58.5 — 16.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia Tech won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
18–15 (55%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 3
#1
DC
Blake Gideon
Yr 1
#1
Wake Forest
Jake Dickert #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓