SMU at Wake Forest Week 9 College Football Matchup SMU at Wake Forest Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 25 2025 · Week 9 · 🏟 BB&T Field Winston-Salem, NC · Turf · 31,500 cap
SMU✈ 967 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
12 13
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
SMU
28
Wake Forest
24
P&R Line SMU -4
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas SMU -6.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors SMU, while Game Control favors Wake Forest. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
SMU wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Wake Forest wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
SMU -6.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → SMU · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Wake Forest Coming off BYE 🚌 SMU 2nd straight Road Game
SMU 2025 Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.0W42–1365.0W42–13UN
Sat 9/6SMU vs Baylor-3.0L45–4865.5L45–48ON
Sat 9/13SMU at Missouri State-29.5W28–1060.5W28–10UN
Sat 9/20SMU at TCU+6.5L24–3563.5L24–35UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4SMU vs Syracuse-17.5W31–1856.5W31–18UN
Sat 10/11SMU vs Stanford-19.5W34–1055.5W34–10UY
Sat 10/18SMU at Clemson+3.5W35–2449.5W35–24OY
Sat 10/25SMU at Wake Forest-6.5L12–1353.5L12–13UN
Sat 11/1SMU vs Miami+8.5W26–2050.5W26–20UY
Sat 11/8SMU at Boston College-10.5W45–1354.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22SMU vs Louisville-4.0W38–649.5W38–6UY
Sat 11/29SMU at California-13.5L35–3853.5L35–38ON
Fri 1/2SMU vs Arizona-2.5W24–1955.5W24–19UY
Wake Forest 2025 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.5W10–951.5W10–9UN
Sat 9/6Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.5W42–1060.5W42–10UY
Thu 9/11Wake Forest vs NC State+7.5L24–3452.5L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.5L29–3053.5L29–30OY
Sat 10/4Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.5W30–2351.5W30–23OY
Sat 10/11Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.5W39–1447.5W39–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Wake Forest vs SMU+6.5W13–1253.5W13–12UY
Sat 11/1Wake Forest at Florida State+12.5L7–4250.5L7–42UN
Sat 11/8Wake Forest at Virginia+7.0W16–948.5W16–9UY
Sat 11/15Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.5W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 11/22Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.5W52–1449.5W52–14OY
Sat 11/29Wake Forest at Duke+2.5L32–4954.0L32–49ON
Fri 1/2Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.0W43–2952.5W43–29OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
SMU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
SMU #30
+0.257
Wake Forest #82
+0.181
SMU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
SMU #23
+0.499
Wake Forest #69
+0.432
SMU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
SMU #15
0.188
Wake Forest #21
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
SMU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
SMU #53
+7.126
Wake Forest #113
+6.019
SMU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
SMU #64
+0.777
Wake Forest #112
+0.787
Wake Forest Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
SMU #109
72.4
Wake Forest #30
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Wake Forest Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
SMU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
SMU
16.2
Wake Forest
4.6
Offense Rating
SMU
26.0
Wake Forest
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
SMU
9.9
Wake Forest
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? SMU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
SMU #22
1.50
Wake Forest #42
1.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #2
0.33
Wake Forest #40
0.80
SMU +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wake Forest Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
SMU #1
65.9
Wake Forest #1
69.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #19
22.4
Wake Forest #20
15.4
Wake Forest +3.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
SMU
Rhett Lashlee #1
29–12 (71%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Casey Woods Yr 3 #1
DC Scott Symons Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wake Forest
Jake Dickert #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rob Ezell Yr 1 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself