Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech Week 7 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field Atlanta, GA · Turf · 55,000 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 326 miSame TZ
20 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
18
Georgia Tech
37
P&R Line Georgia Tech -18.5
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Georgia Tech -14 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Georgia Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Georgia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -14
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Georgia Tech Coming off BYE
Virginia Tech 2025 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31Virginia Tech vs South Carolina+8.5L11–2448.5L11–24UN
Sat 9/6Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt-2.5L20–4446.5L20–44ON
Sat 9/13Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-5.5L26–4550.5L26–45ON
Sat 9/20Virginia Tech vs Wofford-35.5W38–651.5W38–6UN
Sat 9/27Virginia Tech at NC State+10.0W23–2157.5W23–21UY
Sat 10/4Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-4.5L23–3051.5L23–30ON
Sat 10/11Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+14.0L20–3555.5L20–35UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/24Virginia Tech vs California-6.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 11/1Virginia Tech vs Louisville+10.5L16–2852.5L16–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Virginia Tech at Florida State+13.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 11/22Virginia Tech vs Miami+18.5L17–3449.0L17–34OY
Sat 11/29Virginia Tech at Virginia+9.5L7–2753.5L7–27UN
Georgia Tech 2025 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Georgia Tech at Colorado-4.0W27–2055.5W27–20UY
Sat 9/6Georgia Tech vs Gardner-Webb-37.5W59–1260.5W59–12OY
Sat 9/13Georgia Tech vs Clemson+2.5W24–2149.5W24–21UY
Sat 9/20Georgia Tech vs Temple-24.5W45–2452.5W45–24ON
Sat 9/27Georgia Tech at Wake Forest-13.5W30–2953.5W30–29ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech-14.0W35–2055.5W35–20UY
Sat 10/18Georgia Tech at Duke+3.5W27–1860.5W27–18UY
Sat 10/25Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-17.5W41–1652.5W41–16OY
Sat 11/1Georgia Tech at NC State-4.5L36–4858.5L36–48ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Georgia Tech at Boston College-16.5W36–3461.5W36–34ON
Sat 11/22Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh-2.5L28–4261.5L28–42ON
Fri 11/28Georgia Tech vs Georgia+15.5L9–1659.5L9–16UY
Sat 12/27Georgia Tech vs BYU+3.5L21–2555.0L21–25UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech #70
+0.368
Georgia Tech #21
+0.552
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #113
+0.446
Georgia Tech #15
+0.838
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #116
0.132
Georgia Tech #108
0.137
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Georgia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #70
+7.235
Georgia Tech #78
+7.954
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #84
+0.855
Georgia Tech #7
+0.949
Georgia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #124
73.2
Georgia Tech #99
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Georgia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
Georgia Tech
1.1
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.3
Georgia Tech
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.4
Georgia Tech
13.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #106
0.60
Georgia Tech #14
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #98
1.60
Georgia Tech #71
0.75
Georgia Tech +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
38.1
Georgia Tech #1
55.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #116
46.0
Georgia Tech #59
25.6
Georgia Tech +17.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Tech
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia Tech
93.3 — 4.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia Tech won by 15
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Georgia Tech with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
16–20 (44%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Philip Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Sam Siefkes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
18–15 (55%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 3 #1
DC Blake Gideon Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself