Sat, Oct 11 2025
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 326 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia Tech
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -14
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia Tech
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia Tech 2025 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 8/31 | Virginia Tech vs South Carolina | +8.5L11–24 | 48.5 | L11–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt | -2.5L20–44 | 46.5 | L20–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion | -5.5L26–45 | 50.5 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Virginia Tech vs Wofford | -35.5W38–6 | 51.5 | W38–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Virginia Tech at NC State | +10.0W23–21 | 57.5 | W23–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest | -4.5L23–30 | 51.5 | L23–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | +14.0L20–35 | 55.5 | L20–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/24 | Virginia Tech vs California | -6.5W42–34 | 50.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Virginia Tech vs Louisville | +10.5L16–28 | 52.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Virginia Tech at Florida State | +13.5L14–34 | 53.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Virginia Tech vs Miami | +18.5L17–34 | 49.0 | L17–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Virginia Tech at Virginia | +9.5L7–27 | 53.5 | L7–27 | U | N |
Georgia Tech 2025 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Georgia Tech at Colorado | -4.0W27–20 | 55.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Georgia Tech vs Gardner-Webb | -37.5W59–12 | 60.5 | W59–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Georgia Tech vs Clemson | +2.5W24–21 | 49.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Georgia Tech vs Temple | -24.5W45–24 | 52.5 | W45–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Georgia Tech at Wake Forest | -13.5W30–29 | 53.5 | W30–29 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech | -14.0W35–20 | 55.5 | W35–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Georgia Tech at Duke | +3.5W27–18 | 60.5 | W27–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Georgia Tech vs Syracuse | -17.5W41–16 | 52.5 | W41–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Georgia Tech at NC State | -4.5L36–48 | 58.5 | L36–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Georgia Tech at Boston College | -16.5W36–34 | 61.5 | W36–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh | -2.5L28–42 | 61.5 | L28–42 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Georgia Tech vs Georgia | +15.5L9–16 | 59.5 | L9–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | Georgia Tech vs BYU | +3.5L21–25 | 55.0 | L21–25 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Tech Edge
Georgia Tech +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Tech Edge
Georgia Tech +17.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Tech
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia Tech
93.3 — 4.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia Tech won by 15
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia Tech with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
16–20 (44%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Philip Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Sam Siefkes
Yr 1
#1
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
18–15 (55%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 3
#1
DC
Blake Gideon
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

