Miami at Virginia Tech Week 13 College Football Matchup Miami at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 22 2025 · Week 13 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
Miami✈ 778 miSame TZ
Away
34 17
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami
37
Virginia Tech
12
P&R Line Miami -25
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami -18.5 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Miami wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Miami wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami -18.5
O/U 49.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Miami 2025 Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31Miami vs Notre Dame+2.5W27–2453.5W27–24UY
Sat 9/6Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.5W45–30.0W45–3ON
Sat 9/13Miami vs South Florida-17.5W49–1256.5W49–12OY
Sat 9/20Miami vs Florida-8.5W26–751.5W26–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Miami at Florida State-3.5W28–2254.5W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/17Miami vs Louisville-10.5L21–2449.5L21–24UN
Sat 10/25Miami vs Stanford-28.5W42–745.5W42–7OY
Sat 11/1Miami at SMU-8.5L20–2650.5L20–26UN
Sat 11/8Miami vs Syracuse-28.5W38–1047.5W38–10ON
Sat 11/15Miami vs NC State-16.5W41–754.5W41–7UY
Sat 11/22Miami at Virginia Tech-18.5W34–1749.0W34–17ON
Sat 11/29Miami at Pittsburgh-6.5W38–749.5W38–7UY
Sat 12/20Miami at Texas A&M+3.0W10–348.5W10–3UY
Wed 12/31Miami vs Ohio State+7.5W24–1439.5W24–14UY
Thu 1/8Miami vs Ole Miss-3.0W31–2752.5W31–27OY
Mon 1/19Miami vs Indiana+7.5L21–2746.5L21–27OY
Virginia Tech 2025 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31Virginia Tech vs South Carolina+8.5L11–2448.5L11–24UN
Sat 9/6Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt-2.5L20–4446.5L20–44ON
Sat 9/13Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-5.5L26–4550.5L26–45ON
Sat 9/20Virginia Tech vs Wofford-35.5W38–651.5W38–6UN
Sat 9/27Virginia Tech at NC State+10.0W23–2157.5W23–21UY
Sat 10/4Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-4.5L23–3051.5L23–30ON
Sat 10/11Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+14.0L20–3555.5L20–35UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/24Virginia Tech vs California-6.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 11/1Virginia Tech vs Louisville+10.5L16–2852.5L16–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Virginia Tech at Florida State+13.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 11/22Virginia Tech vs Miami+18.5L17–3449.0L17–34OY
Sat 11/29Virginia Tech at Virginia+9.5L7–2753.5L7–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Miami PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami #35
+0.497
Virginia Tech #70
+0.224
Miami Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami #13
+0.846
Virginia Tech #113
+0.289
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami #13
0.189
Virginia Tech #116
0.132
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami #24
+8.698
Virginia Tech #70
+6.190
Miami Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami #23
+0.919
Virginia Tech #84
+0.782
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami #44
69.8
Virginia Tech #124
73.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami
24.1
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
Miami
27.0
Virginia Tech
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami
2.9
Virginia Tech
12.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami #51
1.67
Virginia Tech #106
0.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #8
0.56
Virginia Tech #98
1.89
Miami +1.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami #1
68.1
Virginia Tech #1
33.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #11
17.3
Virginia Tech #116
50.0
Miami +35.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
22–15 (60%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 3 #1
DC Corey Hetherman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
16–20 (44%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Philip Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Sam Siefkes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself