Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Week 3 College Football Matchup Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 13 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
Old Dominion✈ 227 miSame TZ
45 26
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Old Dominion
25
ODU +5.5
Virginia Tech
26
P&R Line Virginia Tech -0.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -5.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia Tech, while Game Control favors Old Dominion. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Old Dominion wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -5.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Old Dominion · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Virginia Tech 2nd straight Home Game
Old Dominion 2025 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Old Dominion at Indiana+23.5L14–2754.5L14–27UY
Sat 9/6Old Dominion vs North Carolina Central-22.0W54–650.5W54–6OY
Sat 9/13Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+5.5W45–2650.5W45–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Old Dominion vs Liberty-14.5W21–753.5W21–7UN
Sat 10/4Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina-18.5W47–753.5W47–7OY
Sat 10/11Old Dominion at Marshall-14.5L24–4857.5L24–48ON
Sat 10/18Old Dominion at James Madison+3.0L27–6347.5L27–63ON
Sat 10/25Old Dominion vs App State-12.5W24–2160.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/1Old Dominion at UL Monroe-16.5W31–655.5W31–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/13Old Dominion vs Troy-9.5W33–053.5W33–0UY
Sat 11/22Old Dominion at Georgia Southern-10.0W45–1062.0W45–10UY
Sat 11/29Old Dominion vs Georgia State-29.0W27–1058.5W27–10UN
Wed 12/17Old Dominion vs South Florida+4.0W24–1052.5W24–10UY
Virginia Tech 2025 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31Virginia Tech vs South Carolina+8.5L11–2448.5L11–24UN
Sat 9/6Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt-2.5L20–4446.5L20–44ON
Sat 9/13Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-5.5L26–4550.5L26–45ON
Sat 9/20Virginia Tech vs Wofford-35.5W38–651.5W38–6UN
Sat 9/27Virginia Tech at NC State+10.0W23–2157.5W23–21UY
Sat 10/4Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-4.5L23–3051.5L23–30ON
Sat 10/11Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+14.0L20–3555.5L20–35UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/24Virginia Tech vs California-6.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 11/1Virginia Tech vs Louisville+10.5L16–2852.5L16–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Virginia Tech at Florida State+13.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 11/22Virginia Tech vs Miami+18.5L17–3449.0L17–34OY
Sat 11/29Virginia Tech at Virginia+9.5L7–2753.5L7–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Old Dominion PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Old Dominion
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Old Dominion #27
+0.526
Virginia Tech #70
+0.199
Old Dominion Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #18
+0.835
Virginia Tech #113
+0.241
Old Dominion Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #17
0.186
Virginia Tech #116
0.132
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Old Dominion Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #48
+8.284
Virginia Tech #70
+6.707
Old Dominion Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #31
+0.915
Virginia Tech #84
+0.809
Old Dominion Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #39
69.7
Virginia Tech #124
73.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Old Dominion Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Old Dominion
-0.6
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
Old Dominion
13.4
Virginia Tech
18.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Old Dominion
14.0
Virginia Tech
12.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Old Dominion #27
0.00
Virginia Tech #106
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #21
1.00
Virginia Tech #98
2.00
Virginia Tech +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Old Dominion Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Old Dominion #1
47.0
Virginia Tech #1
30.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #17
45.3
Virginia Tech #116
56.1
Old Dominion +16.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
20–30 (40%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 3 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
16–20 (44%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Philip Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Sam Siefkes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself