Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech Week 2 College Football Matchup Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 361 mi+1 hr TZ
44 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Vanderbilt
36
VAN +2.5
Virginia Tech
15
P&R Line Vanderbilt -21
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -2.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Vanderbilt wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -2.5
O/U 46.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Vanderbilt · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Vanderbilt 2025 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.5W45–349.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/6Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.5W44–2046.5W44–20OY
Sat 9/13Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.0W31–748.5W31–7UY
Sat 9/20Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-27.5W70–2153.5W70–21OY
Sat 9/27Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.5W55–3557.5W55–35ON
Sat 10/4Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.5L14–3058.5L14–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Vanderbilt vs LSU-1.5W31–2448.5W31–24OY
Sat 10/25Vanderbilt vs Missouri-3.0W17–1052.5W17–10UY
Sat 11/1Vanderbilt at Texas+3.5L31–3448.5L31–34OY
Sat 11/8Vanderbilt vs Auburn-6.0W45–3846.5W45–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-7.0W45–1753.5W45–17OY
Sat 11/29Vanderbilt at Tennessee+2.0W45–2466.5W45–24OY
Wed 12/31Vanderbilt vs Iowa-3.0L27–3447.5L27–34ON
Virginia Tech 2025 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31Virginia Tech vs South Carolina+8.5L11–2448.5L11–24UN
Sat 9/6Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt-2.5L20–4446.5L20–44ON
Sat 9/13Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-5.5L26–4550.5L26–45ON
Sat 9/20Virginia Tech vs Wofford-35.5W38–651.5W38–6UN
Sat 9/27Virginia Tech at NC State+10.0W23–2157.5W23–21UY
Sat 10/4Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-4.5L23–3051.5L23–30ON
Sat 10/11Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+14.0L20–3555.5L20–35UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/24Virginia Tech vs California-6.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 11/1Virginia Tech vs Louisville+10.5L16–2852.5L16–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Virginia Tech at Florida State+13.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 11/22Virginia Tech vs Miami+18.5L17–3449.0L17–34OY
Sat 11/29Virginia Tech at Virginia+9.5L7–2753.5L7–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Vanderbilt PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Vanderbilt #1
+0.720
Virginia Tech #70
+0.375
Vanderbilt Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Vanderbilt #1
+0.965
Virginia Tech #113
+0.510
Vanderbilt Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Vanderbilt #39
0.171
Virginia Tech #116
0.132
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Vanderbilt Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Vanderbilt #3
+9.342
Virginia Tech #70
+7.579
Vanderbilt Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Vanderbilt #1
+0.975
Virginia Tech #84
+0.832
Vanderbilt Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Vanderbilt #54
70.5
Virginia Tech #124
73.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Vanderbilt Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Vanderbilt
3.9
Virginia Tech
5.4
Offense Rating
Vanderbilt
16.6
Virginia Tech
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Vanderbilt
12.7
Virginia Tech
12.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Vanderbilt Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Vanderbilt #12
0.00
Virginia Tech #106
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Vanderbilt #51
0.00
Virginia Tech #98
0.00
Vanderbilt +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Vanderbilt Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Vanderbilt #1
95.6
Virginia Tech #1
10.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Vanderbilt #43
2.5
Virginia Tech #116
77.2
Vanderbilt +84.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Vanderbilt
1 — 4 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Virginia Tech
50.8 — 35.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Vanderbilt won by 24
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
16–33 (31%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 2 #1
DC Steve Gregory Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
16–20 (44%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Philip Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Sam Siefkes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself