Sat, Oct 4 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Maryland Stadium
College Park, MD
·
Turf
·
51,802 cap
Washington✈ 2,321 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Maryland wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Washington -5.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Washington
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Washington 2025 Schedule
Washington's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Washington vs Colorado State | -20.5W38–21 | 52.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Washington vs UC Davis | -28.0W70–10 | 54.0 | W70–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Washington at Washington State | -21.0W59–24 | 51.5 | W59–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Washington vs Ohio State | +9.5L6–24 | 52.5 | L6–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Washington at Maryland | -5.5W24–20 | 52.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Washington vs Rutgers | -9.5W38–19 | 62.5 | W38–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Washington at Michigan | +4.5L7–24 | 50.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Washington vs Illinois | -3.5W42–25 | 54.5 | W42–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Washington at Wisconsin | -10.5L10–13 | 44.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Washington vs Purdue | -14.5W49–13 | 51.5 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Washington at UCLA | -10.5W48–14 | 51.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Washington vs Oregon | +6.5L14–26 | 51.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/13 | Washington vs Boise State | -9.5W38–10 | 55.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Maryland 2025 Schedule
Maryland's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Maryland vs Florida Atlantic | -16.5W39–7 | 57.5 | W39–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/5 | Maryland vs Northern Illinois | -17.0W20–9 | 44.5 | W20–9 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Maryland vs Towson | -28.5W44–17 | 53.5 | W44–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Maryland at Wisconsin | +10.5W27–10 | 44.5 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Maryland vs Washington | +5.5L20–24 | 52.5 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Maryland vs Nebraska | +7.0L31–34 | 47.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Maryland at UCLA | +3.5L17–20 | 52.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Maryland vs Indiana | +21.0L10–55 | 50.5 | L10–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Maryland at Rutgers | +1.5L20–35 | 56.5 | L20–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Maryland at Illinois | +15.5L6–24 | 51.5 | L6–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Maryland vs Michigan | +14.0L20–45 | 46.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Maryland vs Michigan State | +4.0L28–38 | 49.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Washington
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Washington
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Maryland Edge
Maryland +15.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington
2 — 3 sequences
GC Battle
Maryland
76.6 — 11.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Maryland with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington
Jedd Fisch #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jimmie Dougherty
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ryan Walters
Yr 1
#1
Maryland
Mike Locksley #1
33–41 (45%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Pep Hamilton
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Williams
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓