Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Navy wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Navy -11.5
O/U 43.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Navy
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Temple 2024 Schedule
Temple's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Temple at Oklahoma | +42.5L3–51 | 59.5 | L3–51 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Temple at Navy | +11.5L11–38 | 43.5 | L11–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Temple vs Coastal Carolina | +17.5L20–28 | 51.5 | L20–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Temple vs Utah State | +6.5W45–29 | 53.5 | W45–29 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/26 | Temple vs Army | +11.0L14–42 | 46.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Temple at UConn | +17.5L20–29 | 49.0 | L20–29 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Temple vs Tulsa | -3.5W20–10 | 51.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Temple at East Carolina | +8.5L34–56 | 48.5 | L34–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Temple at Tulane | +25.5L6–52 | 50.5 | L6–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Temple vs Florida Atlantic | -2.0W18–15 | 50.0 | W18–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/22 | Temple at UTSA | +16.5L27–51 | 56.0 | L27–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Temple vs North Texas | +10.5L17–24 | 63.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
Navy 2024 Schedule
Navy's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Navy vs Bucknell | -31.5W49–21 | 48.5 | W49–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Navy vs Temple | -11.5W38–11 | 43.5 | W38–11 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Navy vs Memphis | +9.5W56–44 | 47.0 | W56–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Navy at UAB | -4.5W41–18 | 56.5 | W41–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Navy at Air Force | -10.0W34–7 | 37.0 | W34–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Navy vs Charlotte | -16.5W51–17 | 57.5 | W51–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Navy vs Notre Dame | +14.0L14–51 | 50.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Navy at Rice | -12.5L10–24 | 49.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Navy at South Florida | -4.5W28–7 | 59.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Navy vs Tulane | +7.5L0–35 | 49.0 | L0–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/29 | Navy at East Carolina | +2.5W34–20 | 54.0 | W34–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 12/14 | Navy vs Army | +6.0 | 39.5 | — | — | — |
| Fri 12/27 | Navy vs Oklahoma | -1.0W21–20 | 44.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Navy
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Navy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Navy
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Temple Edge
Temple +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Navy Edge
Navy +67.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Navy
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Navy
84.4 — 5.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Navy won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Navy with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Temple
Stan Drayton #1
6–18 (25%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Danny Langsdorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Everett Withers
Yr 2
#1
Navy
Brian Newberry #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Drew Cronic
Yr 1
#1
DC
P.J. Volker
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓