Sat, Sep 28 2024
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
Georgia Southern✈ 176 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Georgia State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -3.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia Southern
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Southern 2024 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia Southern vs Boise State | +13.0L45–56 | 57.5 | L45–56 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia Southern at Nevada | +1.5W20–17 | 56.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia Southern vs South Carolina State | -27.5W42–14 | 52.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Georgia Southern at Ole Miss | +35.0L13–52 | 68.5 | L13–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Georgia Southern at Georgia State | +3.5W38–21 | 57.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia Southern vs Marshall | -1.0W24–23 | 58.5 | W24–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia Southern vs James Madison | +9.5W28–14 | 58.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/24 | Georgia Southern at Old Dominion | -1.0L19–47 | 52.0 | L19–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Georgia Southern at South Alabama | +5.5W34–30 | 60.0 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Georgia Southern vs Troy | -7.0L20–28 | 54.0 | L20–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina | +2.0W26–6 | 59.5 | W26–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Georgia Southern vs App State | -2.5W29–20 | 60.5 | W29–20 | U | Y |
| Thu 12/19 | Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston | -3.5L26–31 | 48.0 | L26–31 | O | N |
Georgia State 2024 Schedule
Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia State at Georgia Tech | +20.5L12–35 | 57.0 | L12–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia State vs Chattanooga | -9.5W24–21 | 51.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia State vs Vanderbilt | +8.5W36–32 | 45.5 | W36–32 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Georgia State vs Georgia Southern | -3.5L21–38 | 57.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia State vs Old Dominion | -3.0L14–21 | 53.0 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Thu 10/17 | Georgia State at Marshall | +9.5L20–35 | 51.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Georgia State at App State | +7.5L26–33 | 59.0 | L26–33 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | Georgia State at UConn | +7.0L27–34 | 48.0 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia State at James Madison | +14.5L7–38 | 53.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Georgia State vs Arkansas State | -2.5L20–27 | 60.0 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Georgia State at Texas State | +23.0W52–44 | 59.5 | W52–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina | -0.5L27–48 | 52.5 | L27–48 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Southern
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Southern +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +3.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Southern
1 — 2 sequences
GC Battle
Georgia Southern
7.6 — 81.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia Southern won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
12–14 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Ryan Aplin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 2
#1
Georgia State
Dell McGee #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jim Chaney
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Sherrer
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓