Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UCLA -13.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Hawai'i
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UCLA 2024 Schedule
UCLA's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | UCLA at Hawai'i | -13.5W16–13 | 55.5 | W16–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | UCLA vs Indiana | +3.5L13–42 | 46.5 | L13–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | UCLA at LSU | +21.5L17–34 | 56.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | UCLA vs Oregon | +23.5L13–34 | 54.5 | L13–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | UCLA at Penn State | +30.0L11–27 | 48.0 | L11–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | UCLA vs Minnesota | +3.5L17–21 | 39.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | UCLA at Rutgers | +4.0W35–32 | 42.5 | W35–32 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | UCLA at Nebraska | +7.5W27–20 | 38.5 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/8 | UCLA vs Iowa | +6.5W20–17 | 44.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/15 | UCLA at Washington | +4.5L19–31 | 47.0 | L19–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | UCLA vs USC | +5.0L13–19 | 53.0 | L13–19 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | UCLA vs Fresno State | -7.5W20–13 | 46.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
Hawai'i 2024 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Hawai'i vs Delaware State | -38.5W35–14 | 57.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 8/31 | Hawai'i vs UCLA | +13.5L13–16 | 55.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Hawai'i at Sam Houston | +3.5L13–31 | 48.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa | -10.0W36–7 | 46.0 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Hawai'i at San Diego State | +1.5L24–27 | 47.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Hawai'i vs Boise State | +21.0L7–28 | 60.0 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Hawai'i at Washington State | +18.5L10–42 | 55.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Hawai'i vs Nevada | -2.5W34–13 | 42.0 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Hawai'i at Fresno State | +12.0W21–20 | 45.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Hawai'i vs UNLV | +12.0L27–29 | 51.5 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Hawai'i at Utah State | -2.5L10–55 | 62.0 | L10–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico | +6.5W38–30 | 61.5 | W38–30 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Hawai'i
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UCLA Edge
UCLA +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCLA Edge
UCLA +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Hawai'i, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UCLA
DeShaun Foster #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Eric Bieniemy
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ikaika Malloe
Yr 1
#1
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
8–18 (31%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Timmy Chang
Yr 1
#1
DC
Dennis Thurman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓