Sun, Sep 22 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Honolulu, HI
·
Turf
·
9,000 cap
Northern Iowa✈ 3,998 mi-5 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Hawai'i wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Hawai'i -10
O/U 46.0
DraftKings
Northern Iowa 2024 Schedule
Northern Iowa's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Northern Iowa at Nebraska | +30.5L3–34 | 49.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Northern Iowa at Hawai'i | +10.0L7–36 | 46.0 | L7–36 | U | N |
Hawai'i 2024 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Hawai'i vs Delaware State | -38.5W35–14 | 57.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 8/31 | Hawai'i vs UCLA | +13.5L13–16 | 55.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Hawai'i at Sam Houston | +3.5L13–31 | 48.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa | -10.0W36–7 | 46.0 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Hawai'i at San Diego State | +1.5L24–27 | 47.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Hawai'i vs Boise State | +21.0L7–28 | 60.0 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Hawai'i at Washington State | +18.5L10–42 | 55.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Hawai'i vs Nevada | -2.5W34–13 | 42.0 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Hawai'i at Fresno State | +12.0W21–20 | 45.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Hawai'i vs UNLV | +12.0L27–29 | 51.5 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Hawai'i at Utah State | -2.5L10–55 | 62.0 | L10–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico | +6.5W38–30 | 61.5 | W38–30 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Iowa Edge
Northern Iowa +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +17.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓