Sat, Sep 28 2024
·
Week 5
·
🏟 BB&T Field
Winston-Salem, NC
·
Turf
·
31,500 cap
Louisiana✈ 793 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisiana entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Louisiana wins
Strong
Game Control
64.9%
Louisiana wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -3
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana 2024 Schedule
Louisiana's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Louisiana vs Grambling | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Louisiana at Kennesaw State | -14.5W34–10 | 46.5 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Louisiana vs Tulane | +1.5L33–41 | 53.5 | L33–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Louisiana at Wake Forest | +3.0W41–38 | 59.5 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Louisiana at Southern Miss | -17.5W23–13 | 57.5 | W23–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Louisiana vs App State | -10.0W34–24 | 64.0 | W34–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Louisiana at Coastal Carolina | -6.0W34–24 | 57.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/29 | Louisiana at Texas State | +4.0W23–17 | 60.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Louisiana vs Arkansas State | -14.0W55–19 | 60.0 | W55–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Louisiana vs South Alabama | -6.5L22–24 | 60.0 | L22–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Louisiana vs Troy | -7.5W51–30 | 51.5 | W51–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Louisiana at UL Monroe | -8.5W37–23 | 50.5 | W37–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Louisiana vs Marshall | -5.0L3–31 | 58.0 | L3–31 | U | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Louisiana vs TCU | +9.5L3–34 | 61.0 | L3–34 | U | N |
Wake Forest 2024 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Wake Forest vs Virginia | +1.5L30–31 | 55.5 | L30–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Wake Forest vs Ole Miss | +20.5L6–40 | 65.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Wake Forest vs Louisiana | -3.0L38–41 | 59.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Wake Forest at NC State | +4.0W34–30 | 52.5 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Wake Forest vs Clemson | +21.0L14–49 | 63.0 | L14–49 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Wake Forest at UConn | -2.5W23–20 | 55.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Wake Forest at Stanford | -3.0W27–24 | 53.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/8 | Wake Forest vs California | +7.5L36–46 | 54.5 | L36–46 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Wake Forest at North Carolina | +10.5L24–31 | 64.5 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Wake Forest at Miami | +23.5L14–42 | 67.0 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Wake Forest vs Duke | +3.5L17–23 | 53.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +11.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisiana. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisiana
Michael Desormeaux #1
13–14 (48%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Tim Leger
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jim Salgado
Yr 1
#1
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
63–61 (51%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Warren Ruggiero
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brad Lambert
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓