Sat, Oct 26 2024
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Stanford Stadium
Stanford, CA
·
Turf
·
50,424 cap
Wake Forest✈ 2,301 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -3.0
O/U 53.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2024 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Wake Forest vs Virginia | +1.5L30–31 | 55.5 | L30–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Wake Forest vs Ole Miss | +20.5L6–40 | 65.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Wake Forest vs Louisiana | -3.0L38–41 | 59.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Wake Forest at NC State | +4.0W34–30 | 52.5 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Wake Forest vs Clemson | +21.0L14–49 | 63.0 | L14–49 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Wake Forest at UConn | -2.5W23–20 | 55.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Wake Forest at Stanford | -3.0W27–24 | 53.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/8 | Wake Forest vs California | +7.5L36–46 | 54.5 | L36–46 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Wake Forest at North Carolina | +10.5L24–31 | 64.5 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Wake Forest at Miami | +23.5L14–42 | 67.0 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Wake Forest vs Duke | +3.5L17–23 | 53.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
Stanford 2024 Schedule
Stanford's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Stanford vs TCU | +8.0L27–34 | 58.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Stanford vs Cal Poly | -33.5W41–7 | 59.5 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/20 | Stanford at Syracuse | +9.5W26–24 | 56.5 | W26–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Stanford at Clemson | +24.0L14–40 | 58.0 | L14–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Stanford vs Virginia Tech | +9.5L7–31 | 50.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Stanford at Notre Dame | +22.5L7–49 | 45.5 | L7–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Stanford vs SMU | +16.5L10–40 | 52.5 | L10–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Stanford vs Wake Forest | +3.0L24–27 | 53.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Stanford at NC State | +10.0L28–59 | 46.5 | L28–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Stanford vs Louisville | +21.0W38–35 | 57.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Stanford at California | +15.0L21–24 | 53.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Stanford at San José State | +2.5L31–34 | 54.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +8.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wake Forest. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
63–61 (51%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Warren Ruggiero
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brad Lambert
Yr 3
#1
Stanford
Troy Taylor #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Troy Taylor
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bobby April III
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓