Clemson at Virginia Tech Week 11 College Football Matchup Clemson at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
Clemson✈ 221 miSame TZ
Away
24 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Clemson
27
Virginia Tech
26
P&R Line Clemson -1
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Clemson -6.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Clemson has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Clemson entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Clemson wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Clemson wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Clemson -6.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Clemson · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Clemson 2024 Schedule
Clemson's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Clemson vs Georgia+10.5L3–3449.0L3–34UN
Sat 9/7Clemson vs App State-13.5W66–2053.5W66–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Clemson vs NC State-17.0W59–3544.0W59–35OY
Sat 9/28Clemson vs Stanford-24.0W40–1458.0W40–14UY
Sat 10/5Clemson at Florida State-16.5W29–1347.0W29–13UN
Sat 10/12Clemson at Wake Forest-21.0W49–1463.0W49–14UY
Sat 10/19Clemson vs Virginia-20.0W48–3157.5W48–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Clemson vs Louisville-11.0L21–3362.5L21–33UN
Sat 11/9Clemson at Virginia Tech-6.5W24–1454.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/16Clemson at Pittsburgh-12.0W24–2052.0W24–20UN
Sat 11/23Clemson vs The Citadel-49.5W51–1458.5W51–14ON
Sat 11/30Clemson vs South Carolina-2.5L14–1748.5L14–17UN
Sat 12/7Clemson vs SMU+2.5W34–3156.5W34–31OY
Sat 12/21Clemson at Texas+13.5L24–3849.5L24–38ON
Virginia Tech 2024 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt-13.5L27–3453.5L27–34ON
Sat 9/7Virginia Tech vs Marshall-20.5W31–1452.5W31–14UN
Sat 9/14Virginia Tech at Old Dominion-15.5W37–1747.5W37–17OY
Sat 9/21Virginia Tech vs Rutgers-3.0L23–2645.0L23–26ON
Fri 9/27Virginia Tech at Miami+17.5L34–3855.5L34–38OY
Sat 10/5Virginia Tech at Stanford-9.5W31–750.0W31–7UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Virginia Tech vs Boston College-8.5W42–2147.5W42–21OY
Sat 10/26Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech-11.0W21–652.0W21–6UY
Sat 11/2Virginia Tech at Syracuse-3.5L31–3854.0L31–38ON
Sat 11/9Virginia Tech vs Clemson+6.5L14–2454.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Virginia Tech at Duke-2.5L28–3145.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/30Virginia Tech vs Virginia-4.5W37–1744.5W37–17OY
Fri 1/3Virginia Tech vs Minnesota+10.0L10–2443.5L10–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Clemson PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Clemson
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Clemson #21
+0.359
Virginia Tech #75
+0.318
Clemson Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Clemson #38
+0.507
Virginia Tech #100
+0.318
Clemson Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Clemson #20
0.190
Virginia Tech #10
0.201
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Clemson #29
+7.301
Virginia Tech #40
+7.860
Virginia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Clemson #24
+0.856
Virginia Tech #87
+0.816
Clemson Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Clemson #49
69.9
Virginia Tech #46
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Clemson Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Clemson
8.2
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
Clemson
18.0
Virginia Tech
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Clemson
9.8
Virginia Tech
12.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Clemson Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Clemson #29
2.88
Virginia Tech #8
1.78
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Clemson #93
1.13
Virginia Tech #64
1.11
Clemson +1.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Clemson Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Clemson #1
65.5
Virginia Tech #1
59.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Clemson #11
22.2
Virginia Tech #41
26.5
Clemson +6.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Clemson. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
170–43 (80%) · Yr 16 at school
OC Garrett Riley Yr 2 #1
DC Mickey Conn Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
10–14 (42%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 3 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself