Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Evanston, IL
·
Turf
·
15,000 cap
Wisconsin✈ 111 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Wisconsin
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wisconsin entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Wisconsin wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Wisconsin wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -9.5
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Wisconsin
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wisconsin 2024 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Wisconsin vs Western Michigan | -24.0W28–14 | 57.0 | W28–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Wisconsin vs South Dakota | -17.5W27–13 | 44.5 | W27–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Wisconsin vs Alabama | +15.5L10–42 | 51.0 | L10–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Wisconsin at USC | +14.0L21–38 | 50.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Wisconsin vs Purdue | -12.0W52–6 | 44.5 | W52–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Wisconsin at Rutgers | +1.0W42–7 | 43.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Wisconsin vs Northwestern | -9.5W23–3 | 42.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Wisconsin vs Penn State | +6.5L13–28 | 47.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Wisconsin at Iowa | +2.5L10–42 | 40.0 | L10–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Wisconsin vs Oregon | +13.5L13–16 | 49.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Wisconsin at Nebraska | +1.5L25–44 | 40.5 | L25–44 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Wisconsin vs Minnesota | +1.5L7–24 | 40.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
Northwestern 2024 Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Northwestern vs Miami (OH) | -4.0W13–6 | 43.0 | W13–6 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/6 | Northwestern vs Duke | -2.5L20–26 | 37.5 | L20–26 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois | -26.5W31–7 | 38.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Northwestern at Washington | +11.5L5–24 | 42.5 | L5–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Northwestern vs Indiana | +12.5L24–41 | 40.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Fri 10/11 | Northwestern at Maryland | +11.0W37–10 | 45.0 | W37–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Northwestern vs Wisconsin | +9.5L3–23 | 42.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Northwestern at Iowa | +16.5L14–40 | 38.5 | L14–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Northwestern at Purdue | +3.0W26–20 | 44.5 | W26–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Northwestern vs Ohio State | +28.0L7–31 | 43.5 | L7–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Northwestern at Michigan | +10.5L6–50 | 35.5 | L6–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Northwestern vs Illinois | +8.5L28–38 | 42.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wisconsin
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wisconsin Edge
Wisconsin +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wisconsin Edge
Wisconsin +18.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wisconsin with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wisconsin
Luke Fickell #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Mike Tressel
Yr 1
#1
Northwestern
David Braun #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Zach Lujan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim McGarigle
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

