Wisconsin at Northwestern Week 8 College Football Matchup Wisconsin at Northwestern Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · Neutral Site · 🏟 L&S Martin Stadium (Temp) Evanston, IL · Turf · 15,000 cap
Wisconsin✈ 111 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
23 3
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wisconsin
26
WIS -9.5
Northwestern
14
P&R Line Wisconsin -12.5
P&R Total O/U 39.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Wisconsin -9.5 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Wisconsin has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Wisconsin entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Wisconsin wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Wisconsin wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -9.5
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Wisconsin · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Wisconsin 2nd straight Road Game
Wisconsin 2024 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Wisconsin vs Western Michigan-24.0W28–1457.0W28–14UN
Sat 9/7Wisconsin vs South Dakota-17.5W27–1344.5W27–13UN
Sat 9/14Wisconsin vs Alabama+15.5L10–4251.0L10–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Wisconsin at USC+14.0L21–3850.5L21–38ON
Sat 10/5Wisconsin vs Purdue-12.0W52–644.5W52–6OY
Sat 10/12Wisconsin at Rutgers+1.0W42–743.5W42–7OY
Sat 10/19Wisconsin vs Northwestern-9.5W23–342.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/26Wisconsin vs Penn State+6.5L13–2847.0L13–28UN
Sat 11/2Wisconsin at Iowa+2.5L10–4240.0L10–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Wisconsin vs Oregon+13.5L13–1649.5L13–16UY
Sat 11/23Wisconsin at Nebraska+1.5L25–4440.5L25–44ON
Fri 11/29Wisconsin vs Minnesota+1.5L7–2440.5L7–24UN
Northwestern 2024 Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Northwestern vs Miami (OH)-4.0W13–643.0W13–6UY
Fri 9/6Northwestern vs Duke-2.5L20–2637.5L20–26ON
Sat 9/14Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois-26.5W31–738.5W31–7UN
Sat 9/21Northwestern at Washington+11.5L5–2442.5L5–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Northwestern vs Indiana+12.5L24–4140.5L24–41ON
Fri 10/11Northwestern at Maryland+11.0W37–1045.0W37–10OY
Sat 10/19Northwestern vs Wisconsin+9.5L3–2342.5L3–23UN
Sat 10/26Northwestern at Iowa+16.5L14–4038.5L14–40ON
Sat 11/2Northwestern at Purdue+3.0W26–2044.5W26–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Northwestern vs Ohio State+28.0L7–3143.5L7–31UY
Sat 11/23Northwestern at Michigan+10.5L6–5035.5L6–50ON
Sat 11/30Northwestern vs Illinois+8.5L28–3842.5L28–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Wisconsin PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wisconsin
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Wisconsin #97
+0.295
Northwestern #129
+0.208
Wisconsin Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Wisconsin #102
+0.412
Northwestern #132
+0.263
Wisconsin Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Wisconsin #124
0.125
Northwestern #77
0.154
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Northwestern Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Wisconsin #57
+7.761
Northwestern #127
+7.193
Wisconsin Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Wisconsin #73
+0.872
Northwestern #123
+0.805
Wisconsin Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Wisconsin #101
72.3
Northwestern #92
72.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Northwestern Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Wisconsin Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Wisconsin
0.3
Northwestern
-0.6
Offense Rating
Wisconsin
15.1
Northwestern
16.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Wisconsin
14.8
Northwestern
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wisconsin Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Wisconsin #124
1.80
Northwestern #112
0.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wisconsin #52
0.80
Northwestern #118
1.00
Wisconsin +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wisconsin Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wisconsin #1
61.5
Northwestern #1
42.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wisconsin #72
23.4
Northwestern #107
36.2
Wisconsin +18.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Wisconsin with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Wisconsin
Luke Fickell #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 2 #1
DC Mike Tressel Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Northwestern
David Braun #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Lujan Yr 1 #1
DC Tim McGarigle Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself