Northwestern at Michigan Week 13 College Football Matchup Northwestern at Michigan Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI · Turf · 107,601 cap
Northwestern✈ 202 mi+1 hr TZ
6 50
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Northwestern
11
Michigan
30
P&R Line Michigan -19.5
P&R Total O/U 40.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan -10.5 · O/U 35.5
Matchup Prediction
Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan -10.5
O/U 35.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Michigan Coming off BYE
Northwestern 2024 Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Northwestern vs Miami (OH)-4.0W13–643.0W13–6UY
Fri 9/6Northwestern vs Duke-2.5L20–2637.5L20–26ON
Sat 9/14Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois-26.5W31–738.5W31–7UN
Sat 9/21Northwestern at Washington+11.5L5–2442.5L5–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Northwestern vs Indiana+12.5L24–4140.5L24–41ON
Fri 10/11Northwestern at Maryland+11.0W37–1045.0W37–10OY
Sat 10/19Northwestern vs Wisconsin+9.5L3–2342.5L3–23UN
Sat 10/26Northwestern at Iowa+16.5L14–4038.5L14–40ON
Sat 11/2Northwestern at Purdue+3.0W26–2044.5W26–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Northwestern vs Ohio State+28.0L7–3143.5L7–31UY
Sat 11/23Northwestern at Michigan+10.5L6–5035.5L6–50ON
Sat 11/30Northwestern vs Illinois+8.5L28–3842.5L28–38ON
Michigan 2024 Schedule
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Michigan vs Fresno State-21.0W30–1048.0W30–10UN
Sat 9/7Michigan vs Texas+7.0L12–3142.0L12–31ON
Sat 9/14Michigan vs Arkansas State-22.0W28–1847.5W28–18UN
Sat 9/21Michigan vs USC+4.0W27–2444.0W27–24OY
Sat 9/28Michigan vs Minnesota-10.5W27–2434.5W27–24ON
Sat 10/5Michigan at Washington+1.5L17–2739.5L17–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Michigan at Illinois-6.0L7–2144.0L7–21UN
Sat 10/26Michigan vs Michigan State-3.5W24–1739.0W24–17OY
Sat 11/2Michigan vs Oregon+14.5L17–3845.5L17–38ON
Sat 11/9Michigan at Indiana+14.5L15–2047.5L15–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Michigan vs Northwestern-10.5W50–635.5W50–6OY
Sat 11/30Michigan at Ohio State+20.5W13–1041.5W13–10UY
Tue 12/31Michigan vs Alabama+16.5W19–1345.5W19–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Northwestern #129
+0.149
Michigan #113
+0.255
Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Northwestern #132
+0.228
Michigan #119
+0.363
Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Northwestern #77
0.154
Michigan #23
0.188
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Northwestern #127
+6.497
Michigan #45
+7.920
Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Northwestern #123
+0.754
Michigan #102
+0.850
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Northwestern #92
72.0
Michigan #52
70.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Northwestern
-0.6
Michigan
18.3
Offense Rating
Northwestern
16.0
Michigan
24.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Northwestern
16.6
Michigan
5.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Northwestern #112
0.44
Michigan #54
0.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Northwestern #118
1.22
Michigan #21
0.80
Michigan +0.36
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Northwestern #1
36.0
Michigan #1
42.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Northwestern #107
42.9
Michigan #59
41.7
Michigan +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
5 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Michigan
84.8 — 6.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 44
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Northwestern
David Braun #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Lujan Yr 1 #1
DC Tim McGarigle Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
1–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kirk Campbell Yr 1 #1
DC Don Martindale Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself