Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Husky Stadium
Seattle, WA
·
Turf
·
70,500 cap
Northwestern✈ 1,723 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Washington wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Washington wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Washington -11.5
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Northwestern 2024 Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Northwestern vs Miami (OH) | -4.0W13–6 | 43.0 | W13–6 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/6 | Northwestern vs Duke | -2.5L20–26 | 37.5 | L20–26 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois | -26.5W31–7 | 38.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Northwestern at Washington | +11.5L5–24 | 42.5 | L5–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Northwestern vs Indiana | +12.5L24–41 | 40.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Fri 10/11 | Northwestern at Maryland | +11.0W37–10 | 45.0 | W37–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Northwestern vs Wisconsin | +9.5L3–23 | 42.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Northwestern at Iowa | +16.5L14–40 | 38.5 | L14–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Northwestern at Purdue | +3.0W26–20 | 44.5 | W26–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Northwestern vs Ohio State | +28.0L7–31 | 43.5 | L7–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Northwestern at Michigan | +10.5L6–50 | 35.5 | L6–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Northwestern vs Illinois | +8.5L28–38 | 42.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
Washington 2024 Schedule
Washington's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Washington vs Weber State | -29.0W35–3 | 51.5 | W35–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Washington vs Eastern Michigan | -25.0W30–9 | 48.5 | W30–9 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Washington vs Washington State | -4.0L19–24 | 56.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Washington vs Northwestern | -11.5W24–5 | 42.5 | W24–5 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/27 | Washington at Rutgers | +1.5L18–21 | 44.5 | L18–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Washington vs Michigan | -1.5W27–17 | 39.5 | W27–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Washington at Iowa | +2.5L16–40 | 41.5 | L16–40 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Washington at Indiana | +5.5L17–31 | 54.0 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Washington vs USC | +2.0W26–21 | 55.0 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Washington at Penn State | +13.5L6–35 | 48.0 | L6–35 | U | N |
| Fri 11/15 | Washington vs UCLA | -4.5W31–19 | 47.0 | W31–19 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Washington at Oregon | +17.5L21–49 | 50.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Tue 12/31 | Washington vs Louisville | -1.0L34–35 | 50.5 | L34–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington Edge
Washington +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington Edge
Washington +0.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Washington
86.5 — 6.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington won by 19
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northwestern
David Braun #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Zach Lujan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim McGarigle
Yr 1
#1
Washington
Jedd Fisch #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brennan Carroll
Yr 1
#1
DC
Stephen Belichick
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓