Sat, Nov 25 2023
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Brooks Stadium
Conway, SC
·
Turf
·
9,214 cap
James Madison✈ 320 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
James Madison
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
James Madison wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
James Madison wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
James Madison -9.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
James Madison 2023 Schedule
James Madison's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | James Madison vs Bucknell | -47.0W38–3 | 53.5 | W38–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | James Madison at Virginia | -6.0W36–35 | 40.0 | W36–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | James Madison at Troy | +2.5W16–14 | 46.5 | W16–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | James Madison at Utah State | -5.5W45–38 | 53.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | James Madison vs South Alabama | -1.0W31–23 | 48.5 | W31–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | James Madison vs Georgia Southern | -5.5W41–13 | 60.0 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/19 | James Madison at Marshall | -5.0W20–9 | 49.0 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | James Madison vs Old Dominion | -19.5W30–27 | 48.0 | W30–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | James Madison at Georgia State | -6.0W42–14 | 53.0 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | James Madison vs UConn | -24.5W44–6 | 47.5 | W44–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | James Madison vs App State | -10.0L23–26 | 56.5 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | James Madison at Coastal Carolina | -9.5W56–14 | 50.5 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | James Madison vs Air Force | +2.5L21–31 | 44.5 | L21–31 | O | N |
Coastal Carolina 2023 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Coastal Carolina at UCLA | +15.5L13–27 | 66.5 | L13–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Coastal Carolina vs Jacksonville State | -13.5W30–16 | 61.0 | W30–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Coastal Carolina vs Duquesne | -35.0W66–7 | 55.5 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/21 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State | -4.5L17–30 | 62.5 | L17–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern | +6.0L28–38 | 67.5 | L28–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/10 | Coastal Carolina at App State | +4.5W27–24 | 59.0 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State | -8.5W27–17 | 59.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Coastal Carolina vs Marshall | +3.5W34–6 | 47.0 | W34–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion | -1.0W28–24 | 51.0 | W28–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Coastal Carolina vs Texas State | +2.5W31–23 | 55.5 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Coastal Carolina at Army | -1.5L21–28 | 40.5 | L21–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Coastal Carolina vs James Madison | +9.5L14–56 | 50.5 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Coastal Carolina vs San José State | +7.5W24–14 | 48.0 | W24–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
James Madison Edge
James Madison +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
James Madison Edge
James Madison +18.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on James Madison with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Curt Cignetti #1
44–8 (85%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Mike Shanahan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bryant Haines
Yr 2
#1
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Travis Trickett
Yr 1
#1
DC
Craig Naivar
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓