Sat, Sep 9 2023
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
James Madison wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
James Madison -6
O/U 40.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
James Madison 2023 Schedule
James Madison's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | James Madison vs Bucknell | -47.0W38–3 | 53.5 | W38–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | James Madison at Virginia | -6.0W36–35 | 40.0 | W36–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | James Madison at Troy | +2.5W16–14 | 46.5 | W16–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | James Madison at Utah State | -5.5W45–38 | 53.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | James Madison vs South Alabama | -1.0W31–23 | 48.5 | W31–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | James Madison vs Georgia Southern | -5.5W41–13 | 60.0 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/19 | James Madison at Marshall | -5.0W20–9 | 49.0 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | James Madison vs Old Dominion | -19.5W30–27 | 48.0 | W30–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | James Madison at Georgia State | -6.0W42–14 | 53.0 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | James Madison vs UConn | -24.5W44–6 | 47.5 | W44–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | James Madison vs App State | -10.0L23–26 | 56.5 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | James Madison at Coastal Carolina | -9.5W56–14 | 50.5 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | James Madison vs Air Force | +2.5L21–31 | 44.5 | L21–31 | O | N |
Virginia 2023 Schedule
Virginia's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Virginia vs Tennessee | +27.5L13–49 | 56.0 | L13–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Virginia vs James Madison | +6.0L35–36 | 40.0 | L35–36 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/15 | Virginia at Maryland | +16.5L14–42 | 48.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Fri 9/22 | Virginia vs NC State | +8.5L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Virginia at Boston College | +5.0L24–27 | 52.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -10.0W27–13 | 42.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Virginia at North Carolina | +24.0W31–27 | 58.0 | W31–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Virginia at Miami | +18.5L26–29 | 48.0 | L26–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Virginia vs Georgia Tech | -2.0L17–45 | 57.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Thu 11/9 | Virginia at Louisville | +20.5L24–31 | 49.5 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Virginia vs Duke | +4.0W30–27 | 48.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | +2.5L17–55 | 52.5 | L17–55 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
James Madison Edge
James Madison +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
James Madison Edge
James Madison +80.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Virginia
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Virginia
49.9 — 40.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
James Madison won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Curt Cignetti #1
44–8 (85%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Mike Shanahan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bryant Haines
Yr 2
#1
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
3–10 (23%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 2
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓