James Madison at Marshall Week 8 College Football Matchup James Madison at Marshall Matchup - Week 8
Thu, Oct 19 2023 · Week 8 · 🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium Huntington, WV · Turf · 38,019 cap
James Madison✈ 192 miSame TZ
20 9
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
32
JMU -5
Marshall
19
P&R Line James Madison -12.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas James Madison -5 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
James Madison has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
James Madison wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
James Madison wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
James Madison -5
O/U 49.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
James Madison 2023 Schedule
James Madison's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2James Madison vs Bucknell-47.0W38–353.5W38–3UN
Sat 9/9James Madison at Virginia-6.0W36–3540.0W36–35ON
Sat 9/16James Madison at Troy+2.5W16–1446.5W16–14UY
Sat 9/23James Madison at Utah State-5.5W45–3853.5W45–38OY
Sat 9/30James Madison vs South Alabama-1.0W31–2348.5W31–23OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14James Madison vs Georgia Southern-5.5W41–1360.0W41–13UY
Thu 10/19James Madison at Marshall-5.0W20–949.0W20–9UY
Sat 10/28James Madison vs Old Dominion-19.5W30–2748.0W30–27ON
Sat 11/4James Madison at Georgia State-6.0W42–1453.0W42–14OY
Sat 11/11James Madison vs UConn-24.5W44–647.5W44–6OY
Sat 11/18James Madison vs App State-10.0L23–2656.5L23–26UN
Sat 11/25James Madison at Coastal Carolina-9.5W56–1450.5W56–14OY
Sat 12/23James Madison vs Air Force+2.5L21–3144.5L21–31ON
Marshall 2023 Schedule
Marshall's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Marshall vs UAlbany-22.0W21–1747.5W21–17UN
Sat 9/9Marshall at East Carolina-3.0W31–1343.5W31–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Marshall vs Virginia Tech-5.5W24–1741.5W24–17UY
Sat 9/30Marshall vs Old Dominion-14.5W41–3547.0W41–35ON
Sat 10/7Marshall at NC State+6.5L41–4844.0L41–48ON
Sat 10/14Marshall at Georgia State+2.0L24–4153.5L24–41ON
Thu 10/19Marshall vs James Madison+5.0L9–2049.0L9–20UN
Sat 10/28Marshall at Coastal Carolina-3.5L6–3447.0L6–34UN
Sat 11/4Marshall at App State+3.0L9–3157.5L9–31UN
Sat 11/11Marshall vs Georgia Southern+1.5W38–3356.5W38–33OY
Sat 11/18Marshall at South Alabama+10.5L0–2844.5L0–28UN
Sat 11/25Marshall vs Arkansas State-2.0W35–2154.0W35–21OY
Tue 12/19Marshall vs UTSA+7.0L17–3547.0L17–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #44
+0.372
Marshall #101
+0.223
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #13
+0.674
Marshall #97
+0.430
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #1
0.239
Marshall #27
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #64
+7.072
Marshall #128
+5.566
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #27
+0.835
Marshall #108
+0.719
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #8
66.6
Marshall #105
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.2
Marshall
-3.0
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
Marshall
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
Marshall
16.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #22
1.80
Marshall #71
1.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #10
1.00
Marshall #73
1.20
James Madison +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
74.4
Marshall #1
34.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #13
15.1
Marshall #109
41.9
James Madison +39.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on James Madison with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Curt Cignetti #1
44–8 (85%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Shanahan Yr 2 #1
DC Bryant Haines Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
18–10 (64%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Clint Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Jason Semore Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself