James Madison at Troy Week 3 College Football Matchup James Madison at Troy Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 16 2023 · Week 3 · 🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium Troy, AL · Turf · 30,000 cap
James Madison✈ 608 mi-1 hr TZ
16 14
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
23
Troy
25
P&R Line Troy -2
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Troy -2.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
James Madison wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Troy -2.5
O/U 46.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 James Madison 2nd straight Road Game
James Madison 2023 Schedule
James Madison's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2James Madison vs Bucknell-47.0W38–353.5W38–3UN
Sat 9/9James Madison at Virginia-6.0W36–3540.0W36–35ON
Sat 9/16James Madison at Troy+2.5W16–1446.5W16–14UY
Sat 9/23James Madison at Utah State-5.5W45–3853.5W45–38OY
Sat 9/30James Madison vs South Alabama-1.0W31–2348.5W31–23OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14James Madison vs Georgia Southern-5.5W41–1360.0W41–13UY
Thu 10/19James Madison at Marshall-5.0W20–949.0W20–9UY
Sat 10/28James Madison vs Old Dominion-19.5W30–2748.0W30–27ON
Sat 11/4James Madison at Georgia State-6.0W42–1453.0W42–14OY
Sat 11/11James Madison vs UConn-24.5W44–647.5W44–6OY
Sat 11/18James Madison vs App State-10.0L23–2656.5L23–26UN
Sat 11/25James Madison at Coastal Carolina-9.5W56–1450.5W56–14OY
Sat 12/23James Madison vs Air Force+2.5L21–3144.5L21–31ON
Troy 2023 Schedule
Troy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Troy vs Stephen F. Austin-26.0W48–3048.0W48–30ON
Sat 9/9Troy at Kansas State+15.0L13–4250.0L13–42ON
Sat 9/16Troy vs James Madison-2.5L14–1646.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/23Troy vs Western Kentucky-3.5W27–2457.0W27–24UN
Sat 9/30Troy at Georgia State+1.0W28–750.5W28–7UY
Sat 10/7Troy vs Arkansas State-15.5W37–352.0W37–3UY
Sat 10/14Troy at Army-6.5W19–041.5W19–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Troy at Texas State-6.5W31–1353.0W31–13UY
Thu 11/2Troy vs South Alabama-5.5W28–1044.5W28–10UY
Sat 11/11Troy at UL Monroe-23.5W45–1447.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/18Troy vs Louisiana-17.5W31–2447.5W31–24ON
Sat 11/25Troy at Southern Miss-16.5W35–1748.5W35–17OY
Sat 12/2Troy vs App State-6.5W49–2351.5W49–23OY
Sat 12/23Troy vs Duke-7.0L10–1744.0L10–17UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Troy PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #44
+0.271
Troy #56
+0.305
Troy Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #13
+0.600
Troy #66
+0.530
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #1
0.239
Troy #25
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #64
+6.881
Troy #78
+6.645
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #27
+0.838
Troy #78
+0.746
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #8
66.6
Troy #29
69.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.3
Troy
-12.2
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
Troy
9.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
Troy
21.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #22
1.00
Troy #48
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #10
2.00
Troy #9
1.00
James Madison +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
60.5
Troy #1
48.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #13
28.7
Troy #30
46.9
James Madison +12.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Curt Cignetti #1
44–8 (85%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Shanahan Yr 2 #1
DC Bryant Haines Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Troy
Jon Sumrall #1
13–4 (77%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Joe Craddock Yr 2 #1
DC Greg Gasparato Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself