Sat, Oct 7 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium
Akron, OH
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 380 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Akron
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Akron entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Akron wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Akron wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -4
O/U 42.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northern Illinois
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Northern Illinois 2023 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Northern Illinois at Boston College | +8.0W27–24 | 50.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois | -6.5L11–14 | 58.5 | L11–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Northern Illinois at Nebraska | +11.5L11–35 | 42.5 | L11–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Northern Illinois vs Tulsa | -3.5L14–22 | 54.5 | L14–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Northern Illinois at Toledo | +13.0L33–35 | 48.0 | L33–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Northern Illinois at Akron | -4.0W55–14 | 42.5 | W55–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Northern Illinois vs Ohio | +5.5W23–13 | 45.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan | -11.5W20–13 | 43.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | -3.0L31–37 | 48.0 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Tue 11/7 | Northern Illinois vs Ball State | -9.5L17–20 | 43.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Tue 11/14 | Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan | -4.5W24–0 | 55.5 | W24–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Northern Illinois at Kent State | -20.5W37–27 | 44.5 | W37–27 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State | +2.5W21–19 | 54.0 | W21–19 | U | Y |
Akron 2023 Schedule
Akron's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Akron at Temple | +9.5L21–24 | 55.0 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Akron vs Morgan State | -25.0W24–21 | 46.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Akron at Kentucky | +25.0L3–35 | 48.5 | L3–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Akron at Indiana | +16.5L27–29 | 45.5 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Akron vs Buffalo | -3.0L10–13 | 53.0 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Akron vs Northern Illinois | +4.0L14–55 | 42.5 | L14–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Akron at Central Michigan | +10.5L10–17 | 44.0 | L10–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Akron at Bowling Green | +7.0L14–41 | 37.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Akron vs Kent State | -4.0W31–27 | 39.0 | W31–27 | O | N |
| Wed 11/8 | Akron at Miami (OH) | +17.5L0–19 | 37.5 | L0–19 | U | N |
| Tue 11/14 | Akron at Eastern Michigan | +3.5L27–30 | 39.5 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Akron vs Ohio | +13.5L14–25 | 41.5 | L14–25 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Akron Edge
Akron +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Akron Edge
Akron +10.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Akron. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
18–29 (38%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Eric Eidsness
Yr 3
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 2
#1
Akron
Joe Moorhead #1
3–12 (20%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Billy Fessler
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓