Thu, Aug 31 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Waldo Stadium
Kalamazoo, MI
·
Turf
·
30,200 cap
St. Francis (PA)✈ 381 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
St. Francis (PA) wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -14
O/U 58.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
St. Francis (PA) 2023 Schedule
St. Francis (PA)'s 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | St. Francis (PA) at Western Michigan | +14.0L17–35 | 58.0 | L17–35 | U | N |
Western Michigan 2023 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Western Michigan vs St. Francis (PA) | -14.0W35–17 | 58.0 | W35–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Western Michigan at Syracuse | +24.5L7–48 | 56.5 | L7–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Western Michigan at Iowa | +28.5L10–41 | 43.5 | L10–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Western Michigan at Toledo | +21.5L31–49 | 52.5 | L31–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Western Michigan vs Ball State | -1.5W42–24 | 50.0 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Western Michigan at Mississippi State | +21.5L28–41 | 54.5 | L28–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) | +7.5L21–34 | 46.0 | L21–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Western Michigan at Ohio | +16.5L17–20 | 52.0 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | -3.0W45–21 | 50.0 | W45–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/7 | Western Michigan vs Central Michigan | -3.5W38–28 | 57.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/14 | Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | +4.5L0–24 | 55.5 | L0–24 | U | N |
| Tue 11/21 | Western Michigan vs Bowling Green | +2.0L10–34 | 54.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
St. Francis (PA) Edge
St. Francis (PA) +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
St. Francis (PA) Edge
St. Francis (PA) +0.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓