Wed, Nov 8 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Waldo Stadium
Kalamazoo, MI
·
Turf
·
30,200 cap
Central Michigan✈ 98 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Central Michigan,
while Game Control favors Western Michigan.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -3.5
O/U 57.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Western Michigan
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Central Michigan 2023 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Central Michigan at Michigan State | +14.0L7–31 | 45.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Central Michigan vs New Hampshire | -7.0W45–42 | 48.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Central Michigan at Notre Dame | +34.5L17–41 | 51.5 | L17–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Central Michigan at South Alabama | +16.5W34–30 | 46.5 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -9.5W26–23 | 45.0 | W26–23 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Central Michigan at Buffalo | -2.5L13–37 | 51.5 | L13–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Central Michigan vs Akron | -10.5W17–10 | 44.0 | W17–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Central Michigan at Ball State | -5.0L17–24 | 42.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois | +3.0W37–31 | 48.0 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/7 | Central Michigan at Western Michigan | +3.5L28–38 | 57.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Wed 11/15 | Central Michigan at Ohio | +11.5L20–34 | 48.5 | L20–34 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Central Michigan vs Toledo | +12.5L17–32 | 54.5 | L17–32 | U | N |
Western Michigan 2023 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Western Michigan vs St. Francis (PA) | -14.0W35–17 | 58.0 | W35–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Western Michigan at Syracuse | +24.5L7–48 | 56.5 | L7–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Western Michigan at Iowa | +28.5L10–41 | 43.5 | L10–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Western Michigan at Toledo | +21.5L31–49 | 52.5 | L31–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Western Michigan vs Ball State | -1.5W42–24 | 50.0 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Western Michigan at Mississippi State | +21.5L28–41 | 54.5 | L28–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) | +7.5L21–34 | 46.0 | L21–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Western Michigan at Ohio | +16.5L17–20 | 52.0 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | -3.0W45–21 | 50.0 | W45–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/7 | Western Michigan vs Central Michigan | -3.5W38–28 | 57.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/14 | Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | +4.5L0–24 | 55.5 | L0–24 | U | N |
| Tue 11/21 | Western Michigan vs Bowling Green | +2.0L10–34 | 54.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Central Michigan Edge
Central Michigan +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +7.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Western Michigan
65.9 — 20.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Michigan won by 10
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
25–23 (52%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Paul Petrino
Yr 2
#1
DC
Robb Akey
Yr 3
#1
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Billy Cosh
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lou Esposito
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓