Kansas State at Oklahoma State Week 6 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 6
Fri, Oct 6 2023 · Week 6 · 🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK · Turf · 60,218 cap
Kansas State✈ 214 miSame TZ
21 29
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
32
OKST +11.5
Oklahoma State
24
P&R Line Kansas State -8.5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -11.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -11.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Oklahoma State Coming off BYE 🛋 Kansas State Coming off BYE
Kansas State 2023 Schedule
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.5W45–056.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/9Kansas State vs Troy-15.0W42–1350.0W42–13OY
Sat 9/16Kansas State at Missouri-3.5L27–3048.0L27–30ON
Sat 9/23Kansas State vs UCF-6.0W44–3153.5W44–31OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/6Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.5L21–2953.5L21–29UN
Sat 10/14Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.0W38–2157.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/21Kansas State vs TCU-5.5W41–360.0W41–3UY
Sat 10/28Kansas State vs Houston-17.5W41–061.0W41–0UY
Sat 11/4Kansas State at Texas+4.0L30–3349.5L30–33OY
Sat 11/11Kansas State vs Baylor-20.5W59–2555.5W59–25OY
Sat 11/18Kansas State at Kansas-7.0W31–2760.5W31–27UN
Sat 11/25Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.5L35–4246.0L35–42ON
Thu 12/28Kansas State vs NC State-3.0W28–1948.5W28–19UY
Oklahoma State 2023 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas-25.5W27–1359.5W27–13UN
Sat 9/9Oklahoma State at Arizona State-2.5W27–1553.5W27–15UY
Sat 9/16Oklahoma State vs South Alabama-7.0L7–3349.5L7–33UN
Sat 9/23Oklahoma State at Iowa State+3.5L27–3436.0L27–34ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/6Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+11.5W29–2153.5W29–21UY
Sat 10/14Oklahoma State vs Kansas+3.0W39–3254.0W39–32OY
Sat 10/21Oklahoma State at West Virginia+3.0W48–3448.0W48–34OY
Sat 10/28Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati-7.0W45–1353.0W45–13OY
Sat 11/4Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma+6.0W27–2461.5W27–24UY
Sat 11/11Oklahoma State at UCF-2.5L3–4563.5L3–45UN
Sat 11/18Oklahoma State at Houston-6.5W43–3056.5W43–30OY
Sat 11/25Oklahoma State vs BYU-15.5W40–3455.5W40–34ON
Sat 12/2Oklahoma State vs Texas+14.0L21–4955.0L21–49ON
Wed 12/27Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M-4.0W31–2356.0W31–23UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #34
+0.539
Oklahoma State #69
+0.338
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #60
+0.708
Oklahoma State #71
+0.490
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #42
0.174
Oklahoma State #98
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #1
+9.327
Oklahoma State #63
+6.908
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #18
+0.874
Oklahoma State #53
+0.811
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #40
69.6
Oklahoma State #44
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Oklahoma State
4.1
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Oklahoma State
19.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Oklahoma State
15.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #20
2.00
Oklahoma State #39
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #46
1.00
Oklahoma State #50
1.33
Kansas State +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
66.7
Oklahoma State #1
40.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #20
14.3
Oklahoma State #78
40.9
Kansas State +26.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oklahoma State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Oklahoma State
80.3 — 8.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Oklahoma State won by 8
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
32–21 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
158–76 (68%) · Yr 19 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 3 #1
DC Jim Bob Clements Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself