Kansas State at Texas Week 10 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Texas Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 4 2023 · Week 10 · 🏟 Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, TX · Turf · 100,119 cap
Kansas State✈ 619 miSame TZ
30 33
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
22
TEX -4
Texas
31
P&R Line Texas -9.5
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Texas -4 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kansas State, while Game Control favors Texas. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Texas wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas -4
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas 2nd straight Home Game
Kansas State 2023 Schedule
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.5W45–056.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/9Kansas State vs Troy-15.0W42–1350.0W42–13OY
Sat 9/16Kansas State at Missouri-3.5L27–3048.0L27–30ON
Sat 9/23Kansas State vs UCF-6.0W44–3153.5W44–31OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/6Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.5L21–2953.5L21–29UN
Sat 10/14Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.0W38–2157.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/21Kansas State vs TCU-5.5W41–360.0W41–3UY
Sat 10/28Kansas State vs Houston-17.5W41–061.0W41–0UY
Sat 11/4Kansas State at Texas+4.0L30–3349.5L30–33OY
Sat 11/11Kansas State vs Baylor-20.5W59–2555.5W59–25OY
Sat 11/18Kansas State at Kansas-7.0W31–2760.5W31–27UN
Sat 11/25Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.5L35–4246.0L35–42ON
Thu 12/28Kansas State vs NC State-3.0W28–1948.5W28–19UY
Texas 2023 Schedule
Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas vs Rice-35.5W37–1059.0W37–10UN
Sat 9/9Texas at Alabama+7.0W34–2453.0W34–24OY
Sat 9/16Texas vs Wyoming-31.0W31–1048.5W31–10UN
Sat 9/23Texas at Baylor-17.5W38–649.5W38–6UY
Sat 9/30Texas vs Kansas-15.5W40–1461.0W40–14UY
Sat 10/7Texas vs Oklahoma-4.0L30–3462.0L30–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Texas at Houston-24.0W31–2460.5W31–24UN
Sat 10/28Texas vs BYU-20.5W35–648.5W35–6UY
Sat 11/4Texas vs Kansas State-4.0W33–3049.5W33–30ON
Sat 11/11Texas at TCU-13.0W29–2656.0W29–26UN
Sat 11/18Texas at Iowa State-7.5W26–1643.5W26–16UY
Fri 11/24Texas vs Texas Tech-16.5W57–753.5W57–7OY
Sat 12/2Texas vs Oklahoma State-14.0W49–2155.0W49–21OY
Mon 1/1Texas vs Washington-3.0L31–3761.5L31–37ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #34
+0.371
Texas #33
+0.425
Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #60
+0.551
Texas #38
+0.569
Texas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #42
0.174
Texas #21
0.187
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #1
+8.545
Texas #75
+6.828
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #18
+0.832
Texas #43
+0.825
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #40
69.6
Texas #25
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Texas
27.1
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Texas
29.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Texas
2.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #20
1.86
Texas #4
1.63
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #46
0.57
Texas #14
0.38
Kansas State +0.23
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
65.8
Texas #1
70.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #20
19.8
Texas #3
15.0
Texas +4.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas
3 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas
76.7 — 9.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
32–21 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
16–12 (57%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Kyle Flood Yr 3 #1
DC Jeff Choate Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself