Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium
Stillwater, OK
·
Turf
·
60,218 cap
Central Arkansas✈ 268 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Oklahoma State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oklahoma State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Oklahoma State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Oklahoma State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma State -25.5
O/U 59.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Central Arkansas 2023 Schedule
Central Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Central Arkansas at Oklahoma State | +25.5L13–27 | 59.5 | L13–27 | U | Y |
Oklahoma State 2023 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas | -25.5W27–13 | 59.5 | W27–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Oklahoma State at Arizona State | -2.5W27–15 | 53.5 | W27–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oklahoma State vs South Alabama | -7.0L7–33 | 49.5 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Oklahoma State at Iowa State | +3.5L27–34 | 36.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/6 | Oklahoma State vs Kansas State | +11.5W29–21 | 53.5 | W29–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Oklahoma State vs Kansas | +3.0W39–32 | 54.0 | W39–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Oklahoma State at West Virginia | +3.0W48–34 | 48.0 | W48–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati | -7.0W45–13 | 53.0 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma | +6.0W27–24 | 61.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Oklahoma State at UCF | -2.5L3–45 | 63.5 | L3–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Oklahoma State at Houston | -6.5W43–30 | 56.5 | W43–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Oklahoma State vs BYU | -15.5W40–34 | 55.5 | W40–34 | O | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Oklahoma State vs Texas | +14.0L21–49 | 55.0 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Wed 12/27 | Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M | -4.0W31–23 | 56.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +40.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓