Sat, Nov 11 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
44,206 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 1,060 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oklahoma State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oklahoma State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Oklahoma State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma State -2.5
O/U 63.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma State 2023 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas | -25.5W27–13 | 59.5 | W27–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Oklahoma State at Arizona State | -2.5W27–15 | 53.5 | W27–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oklahoma State vs South Alabama | -7.0L7–33 | 49.5 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Oklahoma State at Iowa State | +3.5L27–34 | 36.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/6 | Oklahoma State vs Kansas State | +11.5W29–21 | 53.5 | W29–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Oklahoma State vs Kansas | +3.0W39–32 | 54.0 | W39–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Oklahoma State at West Virginia | +3.0W48–34 | 48.0 | W48–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati | -7.0W45–13 | 53.0 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma | +6.0W27–24 | 61.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Oklahoma State at UCF | -2.5L3–45 | 63.5 | L3–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Oklahoma State at Houston | -6.5W43–30 | 56.5 | W43–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Oklahoma State vs BYU | -15.5W40–34 | 55.5 | W40–34 | O | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Oklahoma State vs Texas | +14.0L21–49 | 55.0 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Wed 12/27 | Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M | -4.0W31–23 | 56.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
UCF 2023 Schedule
UCF's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | UCF vs Kent State | -35.0W56–6 | 54.0 | W56–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | UCF at Boise State | -3.0W18–16 | 58.5 | W18–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | UCF vs Villanova | -26.5W48–14 | 54.0 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | UCF at Kansas State | +6.0L31–44 | 53.5 | L31–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | UCF vs Baylor | -8.0L35–36 | 56.5 | L35–36 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | UCF at Kansas | -2.0L22–51 | 65.0 | L22–51 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | UCF at Oklahoma | +17.0L29–31 | 67.5 | L29–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | UCF vs West Virginia | -6.5L28–41 | 59.5 | L28–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | UCF at Cincinnati | -3.5W28–26 | 59.5 | W28–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | UCF vs Oklahoma State | +2.5W45–3 | 63.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | UCF at Texas Tech | +2.0L23–24 | 59.0 | L23–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | UCF vs Houston | -15.5W27–13 | 61.5 | W27–13 | U | N |
| Fri 12/22 | UCF vs Georgia Tech | -6.0L17–30 | 66.5 | L17–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +1.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UCF
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UCF
93.2 — 3.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UCF won by 42
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oklahoma State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
158–76 (68%)
· Yr 19 at school
OC
Kasey Dunn
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jim Bob Clements
Yr 1
#1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
21–9 (70%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Darin Hinshaw
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Gibbs
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓