Texas A&M at Oklahoma State Week 1 College Football Matchup Texas A&M at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Dec 28 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 NRG Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 72,220 cap
Texas A&M✈ 84 miSame TZ Oklahoma State✈ 455 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
23 31
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas A&M
35
Oklahoma State
22
P&R Line Texas A&M -12.5
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Oklahoma State -4.0 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Texas A&M has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas A&M entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Texas A&M wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Texas A&M wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma State -4.0
O/U 56.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas A&M · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Texas A&M 2nd straight Road Game
Texas A&M 2023 Schedule
Texas A&M's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas A&M vs New Mexico-37.5W52–1048.5W52–10OY
Sat 9/9Texas A&M at Miami-3.0L33–4850.5L33–48ON
Sat 9/16Texas A&M vs UL Monroe-36.5W47–353.5W47–3UY
Sat 9/23Texas A&M vs Auburn-9.5W27–1051.0W27–10UY
Sat 9/30Texas A&M vs Arkansas-6.5W34–2253.5W34–22OY
Sat 10/7Texas A&M vs Alabama+2.5L20–2645.0L20–26ON
Sat 10/14Texas A&M at Tennessee+3.0L13–2054.5L13–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Texas A&M vs South Carolina-17.0W30–1751.5W30–17UN
Sat 11/4Texas A&M at Ole Miss+3.0L35–3852.5L35–38OY
Sat 11/11Texas A&M vs Mississippi State-16.5W51–1040.5W51–10OY
Sat 11/18Texas A&M vs Abilene Christian-40.5W38–1054.5W38–10UN
Sat 11/25Texas A&M at LSU+10.5L30–4267.5L30–42ON
Wed 12/27Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State+4.0L23–3156.0L23–31UN
Oklahoma State 2023 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas-25.5W27–1359.5W27–13UN
Sat 9/9Oklahoma State at Arizona State-2.5W27–1553.5W27–15UY
Sat 9/16Oklahoma State vs South Alabama-7.0L7–3349.5L7–33UN
Sat 9/23Oklahoma State at Iowa State+3.5L27–3436.0L27–34ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/6Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+11.5W29–2153.5W29–21UY
Sat 10/14Oklahoma State vs Kansas+3.0W39–3254.0W39–32OY
Sat 10/21Oklahoma State at West Virginia+3.0W48–3448.0W48–34OY
Sat 10/28Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati-7.0W45–1353.0W45–13OY
Sat 11/4Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma+6.0W27–2461.5W27–24UY
Sat 11/11Oklahoma State at UCF-2.5L3–4563.5L3–45UN
Sat 11/18Oklahoma State at Houston-6.5W43–3056.5W43–30OY
Sat 11/25Oklahoma State vs BYU-15.5W40–3455.5W40–34ON
Sat 12/2Oklahoma State vs Texas+14.0L21–4955.0L21–49ON
Wed 12/27Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M-4.0W31–2356.0W31–23UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Texas A&M PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas A&M
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas A&M #42
+0.504
Oklahoma State #69
+0.291
Texas A&M Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #41
+0.748
Oklahoma State #71
+0.556
Texas A&M Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #5
0.216
Oklahoma State #98
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas A&M Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #44
+8.367
Oklahoma State #63
+6.682
Texas A&M Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas A&M #54
+0.833
Oklahoma State #53
+0.803
Texas A&M Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas A&M #1
64.5
Oklahoma State #44
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas A&M Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas A&M Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas A&M
14.3
Oklahoma State
4.8
Offense Rating
Texas A&M
22.5
Oklahoma State
19.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas A&M
8.1
Oklahoma State
14.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas A&M Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas A&M #10
2.36
Oklahoma State #39
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas A&M #18
0.55
Oklahoma State #50
1.17
Texas A&M +1.03
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas A&M Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas A&M #1
55.5
Oklahoma State #1
39.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas A&M #32
24.8
Oklahoma State #78
43.4
Texas A&M +16.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas A&M with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas A&M
Jimbo Fisher #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bobby Petrino Yr 1 #1
DC D. J. Durkin Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
158–76 (68%) · Yr 19 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 3 #1
DC Jim Bob Clements Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself