North Carolina at Georgia Tech Week 9 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Georgia Tech Matchup - Week 9
Sun, Oct 29 2023 · Week 9 · 🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field Atlanta, GA · Turf · 55,000 cap
North Carolina✈ 337 miSame TZ
42 46
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
36
GT +12
Georgia Tech
29
P&R Line North Carolina -7
P&R Total O/U 64
Confidence 86 High
Vegas North Carolina -12 · O/U 65.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -12
O/U 65.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Georgia Tech 2nd straight Home Game
North Carolina 2023 Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.5W31–1763.5W31–17UY
Sat 9/9North Carolina vs App State-18.0W40–3458.0W40–34ON
Sat 9/16North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.0W31–1351.0W31–13UY
Sat 9/23North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.0W41–2449.5W41–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.5W40–759.0W40–7UY
Sat 10/14North Carolina vs Miami-2.5W41–3157.5W41–31OY
Sat 10/21North Carolina vs Virginia-24.0L27–3158.0L27–31UN
Sat 10/28North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.0L42–4665.5L42–46ON
Sat 11/4North Carolina vs Campbell-45.5W59–768.5W59–7UY
Sat 11/11North Carolina vs Duke-9.5W47–4552.5W47–45ON
Sat 11/18North Carolina at Clemson+7.5L20–3158.0L20–31UN
Sat 11/25North Carolina at NC State-2.0L20–3955.0L20–39ON
Wed 12/27North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.5L10–3062.0L10–30UN
Georgia Tech 2023 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Georgia Tech vs Louisville+7.0L34–3949.5L34–39OY
Sat 9/9Georgia Tech vs South Carolina State-44.0W48–1353.5W48–13ON
Sat 9/16Georgia Tech at Ole Miss+17.0L23–4861.5L23–48ON
Sat 9/23Georgia Tech at Wake Forest+3.5W30–1658.5W30–16UY
Sat 9/30Georgia Tech vs Bowling Green-21.0L27–3849.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/7Georgia Tech at Miami+19.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Georgia Tech vs Boston College-5.5L23–3857.0L23–38ON
Sat 10/28Georgia Tech vs North Carolina+12.0W46–4265.5W46–42OY
Sat 11/4Georgia Tech at Virginia+2.0W45–1757.5W45–17OY
Sat 11/11Georgia Tech at Clemson+17.5L21–4255.5L21–42ON
Sat 11/18Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-6.5W31–2251.5W31–22OY
Sat 11/25Georgia Tech vs Georgia+23.0L23–3159.5L23–31UY
Fri 12/22Georgia Tech vs UCF+6.0W30–1766.5W30–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #17
+0.530
Georgia Tech #32
+0.485
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #47
+0.629
Georgia Tech #31
+0.661
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #92
0.151
Georgia Tech #34
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Georgia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #45
+7.962
Georgia Tech #31
+7.678
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #19
+0.925
Georgia Tech #36
+0.873
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #17
68.7
Georgia Tech #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Georgia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Georgia Tech
1.1
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Georgia Tech
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Georgia Tech
13.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #19
1.71
Georgia Tech #16
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #52
0.43
Georgia Tech #88
1.83
North Carolina +0.38
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
51.5
Georgia Tech #1
40.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
25.2
Georgia Tech #81
40.6
North Carolina +11.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Tech
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
16.8 — 67.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia Tech won by 4
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
33–22 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 1 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
5–6 (46%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Sherrer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself