Boston College at Georgia Tech Week 8 College Football Matchup Boston College at Georgia Tech Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 21 2023 · Week 8 · 🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field Atlanta, GA · Turf · 55,000 cap
Boston College✈ 929 miSame TZ
38 23
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Boston College
25
Georgia Tech
32
P&R Line Georgia Tech -7
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Georgia Tech -5.5 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Georgia Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Georgia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Georgia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -5.5
O/U 57.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Georgia Tech Coming off BYE 🛋 Boston College Coming off BYE
Boston College 2023 Schedule
Boston College's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Boston College vs Northern Illinois-8.0L24–2750.0L24–27ON
Sat 9/9Boston College vs Holy Cross-10.0W31–2852.0W31–28ON
Sat 9/16Boston College vs Florida State+25.5L29–3148.0L29–31OY
Sat 9/23Boston College at Louisville+14.0L28–5653.0L28–56ON
Sat 9/30Boston College vs Virginia-5.0W27–2452.5W27–24UN
Sat 10/7Boston College at Army+2.5W27–2447.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Boston College at Georgia Tech+5.5W38–2357.0W38–23OY
Sat 10/28Boston College vs UConn-14.5W21–1449.0W21–14UN
Fri 11/3Boston College at Syracuse+3.0W17–1051.0W17–10UY
Sat 11/11Boston College vs Virginia Tech+2.5L22–4848.5L22–48ON
Thu 11/16Boston College at Pittsburgh+1.0L16–2447.0L16–24UN
Fri 11/24Boston College vs Miami+13.5L20–4550.5L20–45ON
Thu 12/28Boston College vs SMU+13.5W23–1449.0W23–14UY
Georgia Tech 2023 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Georgia Tech vs Louisville+7.0L34–3949.5L34–39OY
Sat 9/9Georgia Tech vs South Carolina State-44.0W48–1353.5W48–13ON
Sat 9/16Georgia Tech at Ole Miss+17.0L23–4861.5L23–48ON
Sat 9/23Georgia Tech at Wake Forest+3.5W30–1658.5W30–16UY
Sat 9/30Georgia Tech vs Bowling Green-21.0L27–3849.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/7Georgia Tech at Miami+19.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Georgia Tech vs Boston College-5.5L23–3857.0L23–38ON
Sat 10/28Georgia Tech vs North Carolina+12.0W46–4265.5W46–42OY
Sat 11/4Georgia Tech at Virginia+2.0W45–1757.5W45–17OY
Sat 11/11Georgia Tech at Clemson+17.5L21–4255.5L21–42ON
Sat 11/18Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-6.5W31–2251.5W31–22OY
Sat 11/25Georgia Tech vs Georgia+23.0L23–3159.5L23–31UY
Fri 12/22Georgia Tech vs UCF+6.0W30–1766.5W30–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Boston College #62
+0.436
Georgia Tech #32
+0.533
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #103
+0.461
Georgia Tech #31
+0.805
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Boston College #130
0.117
Georgia Tech #34
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Georgia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #66
+7.748
Georgia Tech #31
+8.680
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Boston College #63
+0.880
Georgia Tech #36
+0.882
Georgia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Boston College #94
71.3
Georgia Tech #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Georgia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Georgia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Boston College
-6.0
Georgia Tech
1.1
Offense Rating
Boston College
10.7
Georgia Tech
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Boston College
16.8
Georgia Tech
13.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Boston College #110
0.40
Georgia Tech #16
1.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #84
1.40
Georgia Tech #88
1.80
Georgia Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Boston College #1
31.9
Georgia Tech #1
43.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #88
50.9
Georgia Tech #81
39.9
Georgia Tech +11.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boston College
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Boston College
17.8 — 44.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Boston College won by 15
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Georgia Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
16–22 (42%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Steve Shimko Yr 1 #1
DC Aazaar Abdul-Rahim Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
5–6 (46%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Sherrer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself