Syracuse at North Carolina Week 6 College Football Matchup Syracuse at North Carolina Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 7 2023 · Week 6 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Syracuse✈ 516 miSame TZ
Away
7 40
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Syracuse
22
UNC -9.5
North Carolina
35
P&R Line North Carolina -13
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas North Carolina -9.5 · O/U 59.0
Matchup Prediction
Syracuse has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Syracuse entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Syracuse wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Syracuse wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -9.5
O/U 59.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 North Carolina Coming off BYE
Syracuse 2023 Schedule
Syracuse's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Syracuse vs Colgate-40.0W65–049.5W65–0OY
Sat 9/9Syracuse vs Western Michigan-24.5W48–756.5W48–7UY
Sat 9/16Syracuse at Purdue-1.0W35–2056.5W35–20UY
Sat 9/23Syracuse vs Army-13.0W29–1650.5W29–16UN
Sat 9/30Syracuse vs Clemson+7.0L14–3152.0L14–31UN
Sat 10/7Syracuse at North Carolina+9.5L7–4059.0L7–40UN
Sat 10/14Syracuse at Florida State+18.5L3–4153.5L3–41UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/26Syracuse at Virginia Tech+2.5L10–3847.5L10–38ON
Fri 11/3Syracuse vs Boston College-3.0L10–1751.0L10–17UN
Sat 11/11Syracuse vs Pittsburgh+4.5W28–1337.5W28–13OY
Sat 11/18Syracuse at Georgia Tech+6.5L22–3151.5L22–31ON
Sat 11/25Syracuse vs Wake Forest-3.0W35–3143.5W35–31OY
Thu 12/21Syracuse vs South Florida-3.0L0–4556.0L0–45UN
North Carolina 2023 Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.5W31–1763.5W31–17UY
Sat 9/9North Carolina vs App State-18.0W40–3458.0W40–34ON
Sat 9/16North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.0W31–1351.0W31–13UY
Sat 9/23North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.0W41–2449.5W41–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.5W40–759.0W40–7UY
Sat 10/14North Carolina vs Miami-2.5W41–3157.5W41–31OY
Sat 10/21North Carolina vs Virginia-24.0L27–3158.0L27–31UN
Sat 10/28North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.0L42–4665.5L42–46ON
Sat 11/4North Carolina vs Campbell-45.5W59–768.5W59–7UY
Sat 11/11North Carolina vs Duke-9.5W47–4552.5W47–45ON
Sat 11/18North Carolina at Clemson+7.5L20–3158.0L20–31UN
Sat 11/25North Carolina at NC State-2.0L20–3955.0L20–39ON
Wed 12/27North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.5L10–3062.0L10–30UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Syracuse #100
+0.341
North Carolina #17
+0.481
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Syracuse #88
+0.510
North Carolina #47
+0.584
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Syracuse #30
0.181
North Carolina #92
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Syracuse Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Syracuse #103
+6.794
North Carolina #45
+7.460
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Syracuse #98
+0.818
North Carolina #19
+0.907
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Syracuse #59
70.4
North Carolina #17
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
North Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Syracuse
-2.2
North Carolina
-0.2
Offense Rating
Syracuse
16.1
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Syracuse
18.3
North Carolina
16.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Syracuse Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Syracuse #97
2.25
North Carolina #19
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Syracuse #100
0.00
North Carolina #52
0.25
Syracuse +1.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Syracuse Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Syracuse #1
57.9
North Carolina #1
48.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Syracuse #101
30.8
North Carolina #49
29.4
Syracuse +9.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Carolina
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
85.7 — 5.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 33
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Syracuse. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Syracuse
Dino Babers #1
39–49 (44%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Rocky Long Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
33–22 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 1 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself