Sat, Oct 7 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
·
Turf
·
62,980 cap
Syracuse✈ 516 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Syracuse
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Syracuse entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Syracuse wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Syracuse wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -9.5
O/U 59.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Syracuse 2023 Schedule
Syracuse's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Syracuse vs Colgate | -40.0W65–0 | 49.5 | W65–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Syracuse vs Western Michigan | -24.5W48–7 | 56.5 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Syracuse at Purdue | -1.0W35–20 | 56.5 | W35–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Syracuse vs Army | -13.0W29–16 | 50.5 | W29–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Syracuse vs Clemson | +7.0L14–31 | 52.0 | L14–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Syracuse at North Carolina | +9.5L7–40 | 59.0 | L7–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Syracuse at Florida State | +18.5L3–41 | 53.5 | L3–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/26 | Syracuse at Virginia Tech | +2.5L10–38 | 47.5 | L10–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/3 | Syracuse vs Boston College | -3.0L10–17 | 51.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Syracuse vs Pittsburgh | +4.5W28–13 | 37.5 | W28–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Syracuse at Georgia Tech | +6.5L22–31 | 51.5 | L22–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Syracuse vs Wake Forest | -3.0W35–31 | 43.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/21 | Syracuse vs South Florida | -3.0L0–45 | 56.0 | L0–45 | U | N |
North Carolina 2023 Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | North Carolina vs South Carolina | +2.5W31–17 | 63.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | North Carolina vs App State | -18.0W40–34 | 58.0 | W40–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | North Carolina vs Minnesota | -7.0W31–13 | 51.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | -7.0W41–24 | 49.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | North Carolina vs Syracuse | -9.5W40–7 | 59.0 | W40–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | North Carolina vs Miami | -2.5W41–31 | 57.5 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | North Carolina vs Virginia | -24.0L27–31 | 58.0 | L27–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | North Carolina at Georgia Tech | -12.0L42–46 | 65.5 | L42–46 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | North Carolina vs Campbell | -45.5W59–7 | 68.5 | W59–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | North Carolina vs Duke | -9.5W47–45 | 52.5 | W47–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | North Carolina at Clemson | +7.5L20–31 | 58.0 | L20–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | North Carolina at NC State | -2.0L20–39 | 55.0 | L20–39 | O | N |
| Wed 12/27 | North Carolina vs West Virginia | +4.5L10–30 | 62.0 | L10–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +1.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +9.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Carolina
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
85.7 — 5.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 33
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Syracuse. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Syracuse
Dino Babers #1
39–49 (44%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Jason Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Rocky Long
Yr 1
#1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
33–22 (60%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
Gene Chizik
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

