Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, NC
·
Turf
·
75,412 cap
South Carolina✈ 87 miSame TZ
North Carolina✈ 111 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
South Carolina -2.5
O/U 63.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Carolina 2023 Schedule
South Carolina's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | South Carolina vs North Carolina | -2.5L17–31 | 63.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | South Carolina vs Furman | -18.0W47–21 | 52.5 | W47–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | South Carolina at Georgia | +27.0L14–24 | 54.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | South Carolina vs Mississippi State | -6.0W37–30 | 46.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | South Carolina at Tennessee | +12.0L20–41 | 59.0 | L20–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | South Carolina vs Florida | +1.0L39–41 | 50.0 | L39–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | South Carolina at Missouri | +7.5L12–34 | 57.5 | L12–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | South Carolina at Texas A&M | +17.0L17–30 | 51.5 | L17–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | South Carolina vs Jacksonville State | -15.5W38–28 | 55.0 | W38–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | South Carolina vs Vanderbilt | -13.5W47–6 | 53.5 | W47–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | South Carolina vs Kentucky | -2.5W17–14 | 52.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | South Carolina vs Clemson | +7.5L7–16 | 48.0 | L7–16 | U | N |
North Carolina 2023 Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | North Carolina vs South Carolina | +2.5W31–17 | 63.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | North Carolina vs App State | -18.0W40–34 | 58.0 | W40–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | North Carolina vs Minnesota | -7.0W31–13 | 51.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | -7.0W41–24 | 49.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | North Carolina vs Syracuse | -9.5W40–7 | 59.0 | W40–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | North Carolina vs Miami | -2.5W41–31 | 57.5 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | North Carolina vs Virginia | -24.0L27–31 | 58.0 | L27–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | North Carolina at Georgia Tech | -12.0L42–46 | 65.5 | L42–46 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | North Carolina vs Campbell | -45.5W59–7 | 68.5 | W59–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | North Carolina vs Duke | -9.5W47–45 | 52.5 | W47–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | North Carolina at Clemson | +7.5L20–31 | 58.0 | L20–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | North Carolina at NC State | -2.0L20–39 | 55.0 | L20–39 | O | N |
| Wed 12/27 | North Carolina vs West Virginia | +4.5L10–30 | 62.0 | L10–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Carolina Edge
South Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Carolina Edge
South Carolina +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Carolina
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Carolina
9.4 — 68.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
16–13 (55%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dowell Loggains
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 3
#1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
33–22 (60%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
Gene Chizik
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓