Duke at North Carolina Week 11 College Football Matchup Duke at North Carolina Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 12 2023 · Week 11 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Away
45 47
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Duke
25
DUKE +9.5
North Carolina
30
P&R Line North Carolina -5.5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 86 High
Vegas North Carolina -9.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -9.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 North Carolina 2nd straight Home Game
Duke 2023 Schedule
Duke's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/4Duke vs Clemson+12.5W28–754.0W28–7UY
Sat 9/9Duke vs Lafayette-42.5W42–749.0W42–7UN
Sat 9/16Duke vs Northwestern-17.0W38–1448.0W38–14OY
Sat 9/23Duke at UConn-22.0W41–745.0W41–7OY
Sat 9/30Duke vs Notre Dame+5.5L14–2152.5L14–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14Duke vs NC State-3.5W24–344.0W24–3UY
Sat 10/21Duke at Florida State+14.0L20–3849.0L20–38ON
Sat 10/28Duke at Louisville+5.0L0–2347.0L0–23UN
Thu 11/2Duke vs Wake Forest-6.5W24–2141.0W24–21ON
Sat 11/11Duke at North Carolina+9.5L45–4752.5L45–47OY
Sat 11/18Duke at Virginia-4.0L27–3048.5L27–30ON
Sat 11/25Duke vs Pittsburgh-4.5W30–1940.5W30–19OY
Sat 12/23Duke vs Troy+7.0W17–1044.0W17–10UY
North Carolina 2023 Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.5W31–1763.5W31–17UY
Sat 9/9North Carolina vs App State-18.0W40–3458.0W40–34ON
Sat 9/16North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.0W31–1351.0W31–13UY
Sat 9/23North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.0W41–2449.5W41–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.5W40–759.0W40–7UY
Sat 10/14North Carolina vs Miami-2.5W41–3157.5W41–31OY
Sat 10/21North Carolina vs Virginia-24.0L27–3158.0L27–31UN
Sat 10/28North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.0L42–4665.5L42–46ON
Sat 11/4North Carolina vs Campbell-45.5W59–768.5W59–7UY
Sat 11/11North Carolina vs Duke-9.5W47–4552.5W47–45ON
Sat 11/18North Carolina at Clemson+7.5L20–3158.0L20–31UN
Sat 11/25North Carolina at NC State-2.0L20–3955.0L20–39ON
Wed 12/27North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.5L10–3062.0L10–30UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Duke #64
+0.411
North Carolina #17
+0.459
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Duke #79
+0.530
North Carolina #47
+0.561
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Duke #71
0.160
North Carolina #92
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Duke Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Duke #31
+7.678
North Carolina #45
+7.601
Duke Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Duke #69
+0.841
North Carolina #19
+0.901
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Duke #18
68.8
North Carolina #17
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Duke Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Duke
3.0
North Carolina
-0.2
Offense Rating
Duke
15.3
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Duke
12.2
North Carolina
16.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Duke #55
1.00
North Carolina #19
1.63
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #63
0.75
North Carolina #52
0.63
North Carolina +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Duke #1
50.2
North Carolina #1
55.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #53
33.6
North Carolina #49
22.4
North Carolina +5.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Carolina
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
North Carolina
64.0 — 19.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Duke
Mike Elko #1
12–4 (75%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Kevin Johns Yr 2 #1
DC Tyler Santucci Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
33–22 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 1 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself