Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, MS
·
Turf
·
64,038 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 297 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia Tech,
while Game Control favors Ole Miss.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Ole Miss wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -17
O/U 61.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ole Miss
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2023 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Georgia Tech vs Louisville | +7.0L34–39 | 49.5 | L34–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Georgia Tech vs South Carolina State | -44.0W48–13 | 53.5 | W48–13 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Georgia Tech at Ole Miss | +17.0L23–48 | 61.5 | L23–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Georgia Tech at Wake Forest | +3.5W30–16 | 58.5 | W30–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Georgia Tech vs Bowling Green | -21.0L27–38 | 49.5 | L27–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Georgia Tech at Miami | +19.0W23–20 | 57.0 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Georgia Tech vs Boston College | -5.5L23–38 | 57.0 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Georgia Tech vs North Carolina | +12.0W46–42 | 65.5 | W46–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Georgia Tech at Virginia | +2.0W45–17 | 57.5 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Georgia Tech at Clemson | +17.5L21–42 | 55.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Georgia Tech vs Syracuse | -6.5W31–22 | 51.5 | W31–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Georgia Tech vs Georgia | +23.0L23–31 | 59.5 | L23–31 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/22 | Georgia Tech vs UCF | +6.0W30–17 | 66.5 | W30–17 | U | Y |
Ole Miss 2023 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Ole Miss vs Mercer | -35.0W73–7 | 59.5 | W73–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Ole Miss at Tulane | -8.0W37–20 | 64.0 | W37–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech | -17.0W48–23 | 61.5 | W48–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Ole Miss at Alabama | +7.0L10–24 | 56.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Ole Miss vs LSU | +3.0W55–49 | 67.0 | W55–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Ole Miss vs Arkansas | -13.0W27–20 | 61.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Ole Miss at Auburn | -6.5W28–21 | 55.5 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt | -24.0W33–7 | 62.0 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Ole Miss vs Texas A&M | -3.0W38–35 | 52.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Ole Miss at Georgia | +11.0L17–52 | 59.0 | L17–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Ole Miss vs UL Monroe | -35.5W35–3 | 59.5 | W35–3 | U | N |
| Thu 11/23 | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | -11.0W17–7 | 56.0 | W17–7 | U | N |
| Sat 12/30 | Ole Miss vs Penn State | +5.5W38–25 | 53.0 | W38–25 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Tech Edge
Georgia Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +1.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ole Miss
4 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
85.1 — 7.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 25
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
5–6 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Sherrer
Yr 1
#1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
26–13 (67%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
John David Baker
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Golding
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

