Georgia Tech at Ole Miss Week 3 College Football Matchup Georgia Tech at Ole Miss Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 16 2023 · Week 3 · 🏟 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium Oxford, MS · Turf · 64,038 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 297 mi-1 hr TZ
23 48
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia Tech
22
Ole Miss
38
P&R Line Ole Miss -16
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Ole Miss -17 · O/U 61.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia Tech, while Game Control favors Ole Miss. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Ole Miss wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -17
O/U 61.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ole Miss · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2023 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Georgia Tech vs Louisville+7.0L34–3949.5L34–39OY
Sat 9/9Georgia Tech vs South Carolina State-44.0W48–1353.5W48–13ON
Sat 9/16Georgia Tech at Ole Miss+17.0L23–4861.5L23–48ON
Sat 9/23Georgia Tech at Wake Forest+3.5W30–1658.5W30–16UY
Sat 9/30Georgia Tech vs Bowling Green-21.0L27–3849.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/7Georgia Tech at Miami+19.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Georgia Tech vs Boston College-5.5L23–3857.0L23–38ON
Sat 10/28Georgia Tech vs North Carolina+12.0W46–4265.5W46–42OY
Sat 11/4Georgia Tech at Virginia+2.0W45–1757.5W45–17OY
Sat 11/11Georgia Tech at Clemson+17.5L21–4255.5L21–42ON
Sat 11/18Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-6.5W31–2251.5W31–22OY
Sat 11/25Georgia Tech vs Georgia+23.0L23–3159.5L23–31UY
Fri 12/22Georgia Tech vs UCF+6.0W30–1766.5W30–17UY
Ole Miss 2023 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Ole Miss vs Mercer-35.0W73–759.5W73–7OY
Sat 9/9Ole Miss at Tulane-8.0W37–2064.0W37–20UY
Sat 9/16Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech-17.0W48–2361.5W48–23OY
Sat 9/23Ole Miss at Alabama+7.0L10–2456.0L10–24UN
Sat 9/30Ole Miss vs LSU+3.0W55–4967.0W55–49OY
Sat 10/7Ole Miss vs Arkansas-13.0W27–2061.5W27–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Ole Miss at Auburn-6.5W28–2155.5W28–21UY
Sat 10/28Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt-24.0W33–762.0W33–7UY
Sat 11/4Ole Miss vs Texas A&M-3.0W38–3552.5W38–35ON
Sat 11/11Ole Miss at Georgia+11.0L17–5259.0L17–52ON
Sat 11/18Ole Miss vs UL Monroe-35.5W35–359.5W35–3UN
Thu 11/23Ole Miss at Mississippi State-11.0W17–756.0W17–7UN
Sat 12/30Ole Miss vs Penn State+5.5W38–2553.0W38–25OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Ole Miss PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia Tech #32
+0.459
Ole Miss #30
+0.509
Ole Miss Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #31
+0.631
Ole Miss #17
+0.739
Ole Miss Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #34
0.180
Ole Miss #33
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #31
+7.909
Ole Miss #13
+8.553
Ole Miss Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #36
+0.867
Ole Miss #44
+0.901
Ole Miss Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #18
68.8
Ole Miss #85
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Georgia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Ole Miss Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia Tech
1.1
Ole Miss
16.4
Offense Rating
Georgia Tech
14.2
Ole Miss
22.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia Tech
13.1
Ole Miss
5.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia Tech #16
2.00
Ole Miss #28
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #88
2.00
Ole Miss #43
0.00
Georgia Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ole Miss Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia Tech #1
64.6
Ole Miss #1
66.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #81
25.6
Ole Miss #14
17.6
Ole Miss +1.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ole Miss
4 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
85.1 — 7.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 25
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
5–6 (46%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Sherrer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
26–13 (67%) · Yr 4 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 1 #1
DC Pete Golding Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself