Louisville at Georgia Tech Week 1 College Football Matchup Louisville at Georgia Tech Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Sep 1 2023 · Week 1 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA · Turf · 71,000 cap
Louisville✈ 316 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
39 34
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisville
32
LOU -7
Georgia Tech
22
P&R Line Louisville -10
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Louisville -7 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisville -7
O/U 49.5
Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Louisville · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2023 Schedule
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Louisville vs Georgia Tech-7.0W39–3449.5W39–34ON
Thu 9/7Louisville vs Murray State-43.5W56–055.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/16Louisville vs Indiana-10.0W21–1451.0W21–14UN
Sat 9/23Louisville vs Boston College-14.0W56–2853.0W56–28OY
Fri 9/29Louisville at NC State-3.5W13–1056.5W13–10UN
Sat 10/7Louisville vs Notre Dame+6.5W33–2053.0W33–20UY
Sat 10/14Louisville at Pittsburgh-7.5L21–3844.5L21–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Louisville vs Duke-5.0W23–047.0W23–0UY
Sat 11/4Louisville vs Virginia Tech-9.5W34–348.5W34–3UY
Thu 11/9Louisville vs Virginia-20.5W31–2449.5W31–24ON
Sat 11/18Louisville at Miami+1.5W38–3146.5W38–31OY
Sat 11/25Louisville vs Kentucky-7.5L31–3847.5L31–38ON
Sat 12/2Louisville vs Florida State+3.5L6–1651.0L6–16UN
Wed 12/27Louisville vs USC-4.5L28–4258.0L28–42ON
Georgia Tech 2023 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Georgia Tech vs Louisville+7.0L34–3949.5L34–39OY
Sat 9/9Georgia Tech vs South Carolina State-44.0W48–1353.5W48–13ON
Sat 9/16Georgia Tech at Ole Miss+17.0L23–4861.5L23–48ON
Sat 9/23Georgia Tech at Wake Forest+3.5W30–1658.5W30–16UY
Sat 9/30Georgia Tech vs Bowling Green-21.0L27–3849.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/7Georgia Tech at Miami+19.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Georgia Tech vs Boston College-5.5L23–3857.0L23–38ON
Sat 10/28Georgia Tech vs North Carolina+12.0W46–4265.5W46–42OY
Sat 11/4Georgia Tech at Virginia+2.0W45–1757.5W45–17OY
Sat 11/11Georgia Tech at Clemson+17.5L21–4255.5L21–42ON
Sat 11/18Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-6.5W31–2251.5W31–22OY
Sat 11/25Georgia Tech vs Georgia+23.0L23–3159.5L23–31UY
Fri 12/22Georgia Tech vs UCF+6.0W30–1766.5W30–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Louisville PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisville #46
+0.460
Georgia Tech #32
+0.360
Louisville Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisville #64
+0.591
Georgia Tech #31
+0.567
Louisville Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisville #23
0.186
Georgia Tech #34
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisville Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisville #53
+7.869
Georgia Tech #31
+8.165
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisville #11
+0.941
Georgia Tech #36
+0.810
Louisville Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisville #31
69.2
Georgia Tech #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Georgia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisville Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisville
10.8
Georgia Tech
1.1
Offense Rating
Louisville
22.0
Georgia Tech
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisville
11.2
Georgia Tech
13.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisville Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisville #18
0.00
Georgia Tech #16
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisville #20
0.00
Georgia Tech #88
0.00
Louisville +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisville Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisville #1
0.0
Georgia Tech #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisville #21
0.0
Georgia Tech #81
0.0
Louisville +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Louisville
35.8 — 47.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Louisville won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Georgia Tech, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brian Brohm Yr 1 #1
DC Ron English Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
5–6 (46%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Sherrer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself