North Carolina at Clemson Week 12 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Clemson Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 18 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Clemson, SC · Turf · 81,500 cap
North Carolina✈ 230 miSame TZ
20 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
27
UNC +7.5
Clemson
31
P&R Line Clemson -4
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Clemson -7.5 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors North Carolina, while Game Control favors Clemson. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Clemson wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Clemson -7.5
O/U 58.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Clemson 3rd straight Home Game
North Carolina 2023 Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.5W31–1763.5W31–17UY
Sat 9/9North Carolina vs App State-18.0W40–3458.0W40–34ON
Sat 9/16North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.0W31–1351.0W31–13UY
Sat 9/23North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.0W41–2449.5W41–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.5W40–759.0W40–7UY
Sat 10/14North Carolina vs Miami-2.5W41–3157.5W41–31OY
Sat 10/21North Carolina vs Virginia-24.0L27–3158.0L27–31UN
Sat 10/28North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.0L42–4665.5L42–46ON
Sat 11/4North Carolina vs Campbell-45.5W59–768.5W59–7UY
Sat 11/11North Carolina vs Duke-9.5W47–4552.5W47–45ON
Sat 11/18North Carolina at Clemson+7.5L20–3158.0L20–31UN
Sat 11/25North Carolina at NC State-2.0L20–3955.0L20–39ON
Wed 12/27North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.5L10–3062.0L10–30UN
Clemson 2023 Schedule
Clemson's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/4Clemson at Duke-12.5L7–2854.0L7–28UN
Sat 9/9Clemson vs Charleston Southern-50.5W66–1753.0W66–17ON
Sat 9/16Clemson vs Florida Atlantic-25.0W48–1451.5W48–14OY
Sat 9/23Clemson vs Florida State+2.0L24–3155.5L24–31UN
Sat 9/30Clemson at Syracuse-7.0W31–1452.0W31–14UY
Sat 10/7Clemson vs Wake Forest-21.0W17–1253.5W17–12UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Clemson at Miami-3.0L20–2848.5L20–28UN
Sat 10/28Clemson at NC State-9.5L17–2444.5L17–24UN
Sat 11/4Clemson vs Notre Dame+3.0W31–2344.5W31–23OY
Sat 11/11Clemson vs Georgia Tech-17.5W42–2155.5W42–21OY
Sat 11/18Clemson vs North Carolina-7.5W31–2058.0W31–20UY
Sat 11/25Clemson at South Carolina-7.5W16–748.0W16–7UY
Fri 12/29Clemson vs Kentucky-3.5W38–3544.5W38–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #17
+0.372
Clemson #87
+0.364
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #47
+0.385
Clemson #104
+0.453
Clemson Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #92
0.151
Clemson #3
0.223
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Clemson Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #45
+8.173
Clemson #90
+7.030
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #19
+0.798
Clemson #38
+0.872
Clemson Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #17
68.7
Clemson #12
67.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Clemson Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Clemson Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Clemson
8.2
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Clemson
18.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Clemson
9.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #19
1.78
Clemson #53
0.78
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #52
0.67
Clemson #2
0.33
North Carolina +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Clemson Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
56.3
Clemson #1
58.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
22.1
Clemson #17
22.6
Clemson +1.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Clemson
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Clemson
50.9 — 17.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Clemson won by 11
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
33–22 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 1 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
163–40 (80%) · Yr 15 at school
OC Garrett Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Mickey Conn Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself