North Carolina at West Virginia Week 1 College Football Matchup North Carolina at West Virginia Matchup - Week 1
Wed, Dec 27 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, NC · Turf · 75,412 cap
North Carolina✈ 111 miSame TZ West Virginia✈ 309 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
10 30
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
33
West Virginia
28
P&R Line North Carolina -5.5
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 86 High
Vegas West Virginia -4.5 · O/U 62.0
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
North Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -4.5
O/U 62.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 North Carolina 3rd straight Road Game
North Carolina 2023 Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.5W31–1763.5W31–17UY
Sat 9/9North Carolina vs App State-18.0W40–3458.0W40–34ON
Sat 9/16North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.0W31–1351.0W31–13UY
Sat 9/23North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.0W41–2449.5W41–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.5W40–759.0W40–7UY
Sat 10/14North Carolina vs Miami-2.5W41–3157.5W41–31OY
Sat 10/21North Carolina vs Virginia-24.0L27–3158.0L27–31UN
Sat 10/28North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.0L42–4665.5L42–46ON
Sat 11/4North Carolina vs Campbell-45.5W59–768.5W59–7UY
Sat 11/11North Carolina vs Duke-9.5W47–4552.5W47–45ON
Sat 11/18North Carolina at Clemson+7.5L20–3158.0L20–31UN
Sat 11/25North Carolina at NC State-2.0L20–3955.0L20–39ON
Wed 12/27North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.5L10–3062.0L10–30UN
West Virginia 2023 Schedule
West Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2West Virginia at Penn State+21.0L15–3848.0L15–38ON
Sat 9/9West Virginia vs Duquesne-38.5W56–1755.5W56–17OY
Sat 9/16West Virginia vs Pittsburgh-2.5W17–648.0W17–6UY
Sat 9/23West Virginia vs Texas Tech+6.0W20–1353.5W20–13UY
Sat 9/30West Virginia at TCU+14.0W24–2152.0W24–21UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/12West Virginia at Houston-3.0L39–4149.5L39–41ON
Sat 10/21West Virginia vs Oklahoma State-3.0L34–4848.0L34–48ON
Sat 10/28West Virginia at UCF+6.5W41–2859.5W41–28OY
Sat 11/4West Virginia vs BYU-13.0W37–748.5W37–7UY
Sat 11/11West Virginia at Oklahoma+13.5L20–5959.5L20–59ON
Sat 11/18West Virginia vs Cincinnati-4.5W42–2152.5W42–21OY
Sat 11/25West Virginia at Baylor-6.5W34–3153.5W34–31ON
Wed 12/27West Virginia vs North Carolina-4.5W30–1062.0W30–10UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #17
+0.493
West Virginia #35
+0.483
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #47
+0.592
West Virginia #55
+0.610
West Virginia Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #92
0.151
West Virginia #18
0.188
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #45
+8.295
West Virginia #54
+7.446
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #19
+0.884
West Virginia #37
+0.873
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #17
68.7
West Virginia #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
West Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.1
West Virginia
1.3
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
15.9
West Virginia
16.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #19
1.55
West Virginia #41
1.27
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #52
1.00
West Virginia #65
1.09
North Carolina +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
48.9
West Virginia #1
47.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
30.0
West Virginia #37
33.1
North Carolina +1.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
West Virginia
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
West Virginia
78.4 — 10.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
West Virginia won by 20
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
33–22 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 1 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
24–26 (48%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 1 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself