Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State Week 12 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 18 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 JSU Stadium Jacksonville, AL · Turf · 24,000 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 408 miSame TZ
17 56
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
21
JVST -8.5
Jacksonville State
32
P&R Line Jacksonville State -11.5
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Jacksonville State -8.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Jacksonville State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -8.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Jacksonville State Coming off BYE
Louisiana Tech 2023 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-12.0W22–1757.5W22–17UN
Sat 9/2Louisiana Tech at SMU+21.0L14–3866.0L14–38UN
Sat 9/9Louisiana Tech vs Northwestern State-23.0W51–2158.5W51–21OY
Sat 9/16Louisiana Tech vs North Texas-4.5L37–4066.5L37–40ON
Sat 9/23Louisiana Tech at Nebraska+20.5L14–2844.5L14–28UY
Fri 9/29Louisiana Tech at UTEP-2.0W24–1049.5W24–10UY
Thu 10/5Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky+6.0L28–3559.0L28–35ON
Tue 10/10Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee+3.0L23–3153.5L23–31ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/24Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-3.0L24–2755.0L24–27UN
Sat 11/4Louisiana Tech at Liberty+16.5L30–5658.0L30–56ON
Sat 11/11Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-8.5L27–4249.5L27–42ON
Sat 11/18Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State+8.5L17–5653.5L17–56ON
Jacksonville State 2023 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Jacksonville State vs UTEP+1.5W17–1454.5W17–14UY
Sat 9/2Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State-20.0W49–355.0W49–3UY
Sat 9/9Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina+13.5L16–3061.0L16–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan-6.5W21–051.0W21–0UY
Thu 9/28Jacksonville State at Sam Houston-6.5W35–2836.5W35–28OY
Wed 10/4Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee+2.5W45–3052.0W45–30OY
Tue 10/10Jacksonville State vs Liberty+7.0L13–3159.5L13–31UN
Tue 10/17Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+7.5W20–1760.5W20–17UY
Wed 10/25Jacksonville State at Florida International-9.0W41–1648.0W41–16OY
Sat 11/4Jacksonville State at South Carolina+15.5L28–3855.0L28–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/18Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech-8.5W56–1753.5W56–17OY
Sat 11/25Jacksonville State at New Mexico State+2.0L17–2048.5L17–20UN
Sat 12/16Jacksonville State vs Louisiana-3.5W34–3158.5W34–31ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech #91
+0.221
Jacksonville State #103
+0.377
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #87
+0.495
Jacksonville State #119
+0.344
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #86
0.154
Jacksonville State #37
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #67
+7.245
Jacksonville State #79
+8.401
Jacksonville State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #64
+0.782
Jacksonville State #65
+0.851
Jacksonville State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #72
70.7
Jacksonville State #36
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Jacksonville State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Jacksonville State
14.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Jacksonville State
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #113
0.50
Jacksonville State #50
1.22
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #53
0.80
Jacksonville State #28
0.89
Jacksonville State +0.72
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
26.7
Jacksonville State #1
43.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #124
56.0
Jacksonville State #55
35.2
Jacksonville State +17.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Jacksonville State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Jacksonville State
93.5 — 3.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Jacksonville State won by 39
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
5–11 (31%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jake Brown Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Power Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
11–3 (79%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself